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FOREX-Dollar hits 14-month low vs currency basket

Published 10/13/2009, 02:34 PM
Updated 10/13/2009, 02:39 PM
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* Dollar index falls to 14-month low

* Canada dollar nears parity, hits 14-month high

* Gold hits record highs; euro hits pre-Lehman high (Recasts, updates prices, adds quote, detail, changes byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a 14-month low on Tuesday, with investors betting the United States is likely to bring up the rear in a global economic recovery led by Asia and commodity-producing countries.

The euro rose to near $1.49, its highest level since August 2008, before the demise of Lehman Brothers pushed the world economy to the edge of collapse and sparked a frenzy of dollar buying by investors eager to dump riskier currencies.

Hopes for a stronger recovery outside the United States lifted oil to a seven-week high and pushed gold to a fresh record peak, while demand for commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real remained high.

Investors fear a weak U.S. labor market and a protracted recovery will keep interest rates near zero well into 2010.

That makes holding low-yield dollars unattractive, and any appeal the greenback has would be dulled further if other major central banks start lifting interest rates as growth picks up.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn bolstered that view on Tuesday, saying a tepid U.S. recovery meant rising inflation is not an imminent threat. [ID:nWEQ001466]

"People are optimistic about global growth in the fourth quarter and beyond, so money is coming out of the U.S. and the dollar has gone south against most majors, especially commodity currencies," said Hidetoshi Yanagihara, senior currency trader at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York. "That should continue for awhile, especially if the Fed keeps rates where they are."

The euro was last up 0.3 percent to $1.4815 after earlier hitting $1.4876, its highest since late August, 2008. Sterling rose 0.6 percent to $1.5885 while the dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 89.90 yen .

The dollar hit a 14-month low against its Canadian counterpart at C$1.0268 before recovering to C$1.0355, steady with Monday's closing level.

An index that measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies earlier touched its lowest level in 14 months and was last down 0.2 percent at 75.980 <.DXY>.

Big corporate names due to post earnings this week include JP Morgan Chase & Co on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc and International Business Machines Corp on Thursday. [SP500/WK] [RESF/US].

Strong results could further whet investors' risk appetite, adding to dollar weakness.

The Fed will release minutes from its September policy meeting on Wednesday, and investors will scrutinize the text for clues on when the central bank will tighten the benchmark interest rate or start winding down a stimulus program that's pumped trillions into the economy.

Many investors, though, expect the U.S. government to do little to support the dollar other than issue from time to time its oft-repeated "strong dollar" mantra, as a softer currency should aid the weak economy and boost export revenues.

"The (U.S.) administration is quiet and says nothing about it, so people feel they don't desire to make any type of external stand on the dollar," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York.

(Additional reporting by Nick Olivari, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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