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FOREX-Dollar hits 10-mth low vs yen after FOMC minutes

Published 11/25/2009, 05:06 AM
Updated 11/25/2009, 05:09 AM
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* Dollar/yen hits 10-month low after Fed minutes

* FOMC minutes: Dollar decline has been "orderly"

* Dollar weak as shares rise, gold hit record high

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By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a 10-month low against the yen on Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes showed policymakers saw the U.S. currency's recent decline as "orderly" and reinforced the view interest rates will stay low.

The U.S. currency's latest bout of weakness came as European shares rose in early trade and gold prices hit a record high, underlining the trend for investors to diversify investments away from the dollar and into other asset classes.

Minutes from the U.S. central bank's November meeting showed policymakers increasingly confident the U.S. economy is improving, but did not change the market's view that U.S. rates will stay essentially at zero until around mid-2010. [ID:nN24313828].

They also showed the central bank saw the dollar's fall against major currencies since March as "orderly", which analysts said would further persuade the market the U.S. currency would stay relatively weak.

"When the Fed says the dollar's decline has been 'orderly' ... they're implicitly saying this is not something they will do anything about," said Johan Javeus, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

By 1003 GMT, the euro had risen 0.5 percent to $1.5037, off the day's high of $1.5044. The single currency edged closer to $1.5064, hit last month, its highest since August 2008.

The dollar fell 1.1 percent to 87.57 yen, according to Reuters data, its lowest since January, when it hit a 13-year low of 87.10 yen, Dollar selling accelerated after stop-loss orders were triggered as it fell through the key 88 yen level.

The dollar index <.DXY>, which measures its performance against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.6 percent to 74.631.

ORDERLY DOLLAR FALL

European shares <.FTEU3> rose 0.7 percent, while gold climbed as high as $1,179.80, hitting an all-time high.

The Australian dollar was the day's biggest gainer, rallying 1 percent to the day's high of $0.9284 after bullish comments from Australia's central bank raised speculation interest rates will rise in December. [ID:nSYD514867]

Movements in the options market are consistent with the Fed's view that the dollar's decline has been orderly. One-month euro/dollar implied volatility traded in the low 10 percent region on Wednesday, edging towards the year's low in the mid-9 percent area hit in September.

Risk reversals, which indicate how volatile a rise or fall in a currency is likely to be, showed a move lower in the dollar is not expected to be erratic.

Euro/dollar risk reversals were at around 0.9 percent in favour of euro puts -- the right to sell the single currency at an agreed price at a specified time -- indicating that a rise in the euro against the dollar would be perceived as being more orderly than a fall.

(Editing by Nigel Stephenson) ((naomi.tajitsu@reuters.com; +44 207 542 5830; Reuters Messaging: naomi.tajitsu.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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