🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

FOREX-Dollar hits 1-yr low, biggest weekly fall in 4 months

Published 09/11/2009, 04:41 AM
Updated 09/11/2009, 04:51 AM
BARC
-
GC
-

* Dollar index at 1-year low, euro at 2009 high

* Dlr diversification, long-term status at issue

* China data boost economic recovery hopes

(Recasts, updates prices, adds quotes and comment, changes byline and dateline. Previous: TOKYO)

By Jamie McGeever

LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a one-year low against a basket of currencies on Friday, as continued concern over its long-term value further soured the near-term technical picture and meant there was no let-up in the selling.

The dollar index was firmly on track for its steepest weekly decline in almost four months, and the euro its biggest weekly gain in the same timeframe as it hit a 2009 high of $1.4627.

Generally strengthening Chinese economic data also fueled hopes of global economic recovery hopes, which tempted investors away from the dollar and into riskier, growth-linked currencies.

A U.S. Treasury official on Friday said it makes sense for China to diversify its huge stockpile of foreign exchange reserves, which on the margins fed the bearish dollar sentiment that's firmly taken hold this week, traders said.

"There's discussion about diversification, Fed credibility, and the re-emergence of the U.S. current account deficit," said Michael Klawitter, senior strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, noting data on Thursday that showed the U.S. trade deficit widened in July.

"All these factors weigh on dollar sentiment, and from a technical point of view the market wants to see at least a test of the December 2008 high in the euro at $1.4720," he said.

Central banks' pledge to keep the world flooded with as much liquidity -- ie, dollars -- as needed to ensure a sustainable economic recovery has raised concern over the currency's long-term value and status as the world's sole reserve currency.

Improving economic data around the world, the abundance of liquidity, and rock-bottom U.S. short term money market rates have all tempted investors to sell dollars for other currencies and assets like stocks and gold.

At 0820 GMT the dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six other major currencies, was down 0.2 percent on the day at 76.70, having earlier traded down at 76.511, its lowest since September 2008.

The euro was up 0.1 percent on the day at $1.4590, and up 2 percent on the week. The dollar was down 0.9 percent on the day against the yen at 90.90 yen, having hit a seven-month low earlier of 90.69 yen, according to Reuters data.

CHINA IMPROVING

Earlier on Friday, David Dollar, the U.S. Treasury's economic and financial emissary to China, said further diversification of China's FX reserves and internationalization of the yuan made sense.

"The general issue is that China has a huge amount of reserves and it makes some sense to diversify what you put these reserves (into)," David Dollar told a meeting of the World Economic Forum in the northeast Chinese city of Dalian.

"It's healthy to have a wide and different type of reserve currencies," he said.

The diversification issue doesn't appear to have affected demand for U.S. government debt. Three auctions this week worth $70 billion went well and alleviated some fears that the appetite for U.S. government debt may be dwindling in the face of the massive doses of supply.

Economic data from Asia on Friday showed that China's industrial output expanded in August at the fastest rate in 12 months, slightly topping forecasts and showing that it was well on the road to recovery.

On the other hand, imports and exports in August both fell much more sharply from a year ago than analysts had expected.

"The generally stronger-than-expected August data, with the exception of trade, show broad-based improvements in major activity indicators ... (which) supports our view of a continued growth recovery in the second half of the year," Barclays Capital FX strategists said in a note.

The market showed little reaction to data showing Japan's economy grew a revised 0.6 percent in the three months to June, less than preliminary figures had shown but confirming that the economy has crawled out of recession after a full year of sharp contraction.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.