NVDA Q3 Earnings Alert: Why our AI stock picker is still holding Nvidia stockRead More

FOREX-Dollar gains on yen as rate path seen set to diverge

Published 12/30/2009, 12:02 AM
Updated 12/30/2009, 12:06 AM

* Price action subdued, Japan on last trading day of 2009

* Focus heading into 2010 is timing of U.S. exit strategy

* Near-term focus on whether dollar can reach 92.33 yen

By Kaori Kaneko

TOKYO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a two-month high against the yen on Wednesday, keeping the firmer tone it has developed recently on shifting sentiment about the outlook for U.S. rates following improving economic data.

The U.S. currency was also supported by last-minute commercial needs from Japanese companies at year-end but overall market activity was subdued before the new year, with Japanese markets closed on Thursday, traders said.

The dollar rose as far as 92.26 yen, its highest since October, and some dealers were looking for the October peak of 92.33 to be tested soon.

The Japanese currency also fell sharply against the Australian and New Zealand dollars the previous day and remained at lower levels, although off their troughs, on Thursday.

The main question for the currency market going into 2010 is when the Federal Reserve will start to tighten policy.

Improved U.S. data in the past month has made many review their forecasts for when rates might start to rise and has brought the dollar up from a 14-year low against the yen and revived its fortunes against other majors.

Investors will be watching policy maker comments closely, as well as what signals indicators such as jobs numbers send about the strength of the labour market.

"The market is shifting its focus to the recently emerged theme of whether the Fed exit strategy will be sooner than expected. And it will closely scrutinize upcoming U.S. economic data," said Kazuyuki Takami, senior manager at the foreign exchange trading department at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

The December non-farm payrolls report is due on Jan. 8 and some economists are expecting the data to turn positive in the first quarter, after the number of jobs lost shrunk to 11,000 in November.

The dollar edged up 0.2 percent to 92.22 yen. Traders say conditions are thin meaning that individual orders can move prices.

The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.4325 after rising as far as $1.4459 on trading platform EBS the previous day, its highest in two weeks.

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six other major currencies, rose 0.2 percent to 77.994 and traders said the index had room to test 79.00, a level not seen since August.

FUNDING CURRENCY

The dollar has risen about 1.7 percent against the yen this year, after falling roughly 19 percent in 2008.

The euro has gained about 2.5 percent on the dollar in 2009, after falling more than 4 percent the year before.

While the market is looking to the timing of Fed tightening, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates low and may implement further easing measures.

Traders said once the market gets a stronger sense of timing for the U.S. exit strategy, the yen might become the preferred currency to fund purchases in higher yielding assets.

"Yield differentials between the U.S. and Japan have started to widen slightly, showing evidence the market is conscious of the prospect of the U.S. exiting its easy policy," said Tomohiro Nishida, treasury department manager at Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking Company.

"With that perception behind the dollar, if the U.S. heads towards the exit, the dollar-funded carry trade is expected to wane as Japan is seen as more likely to ease further," he said.

The spread of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield over the 10-year Japanese government bond yield last week touched its widest level in two years. The widening spread was seen as supporting the dollar. (Additional reporting by Satomi Noguchi; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.