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FOREX-Dollar gains on yen, Aussie shines on rate hike talk

Published 09/28/2009, 11:22 PM
Updated 09/28/2009, 11:24 PM

* Dollar gains vs yen, shorts trimmed

* Fujii comments on intervention help

* Aussie shines on fresh talk of rate hikes

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday as its rebound from an eight-month low prompted investors to trim short positions and after Japan's finance minister said intervention was possible in extreme cases.

After backtracking on Monday from remarks suggesting he was comfortable with recent yen strength, Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii spoke again, saying he would not rule out taking action if currency moves were irregular but that not promoting a weak currency was the correct policy.

The yen, already on the backfoot early after automatic dollar buy orders were triggered around 89.80 yen per dollar, weakened past 90.00 yen but later edged off its lows and analysts said his comments did not mean Japan's forex policy had changed.

"I don't think Fujii's previous remarks about the government's discretion towards intervention were a sign of a big shift in the government's currency policy as Japan has not intervened in the market for five years," said Osamu Takashima, chief currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

The yen had hit an eight-month high of 88.23 per dollar on trading platform EBS on Monday but retreated the same day as Fujii toned down comments that recent dollar/yen moves were not "abnormal".

Japan has not intervened in the currency markets since 2004 and many market players doubt the new government, led by the Democratic Party which won elections last month, will depart from the old administration's stance.

Traders and analysts say the dollar would have to fall to January's 13-year low of 87.10 yen to make the market think seriously about the possibility of intervention but many say a drop through 85 yen would more likely be needed.

Traders said dollar/yen was also being whipped around by flows related to the fiscal half-year end in Japan, with dollar demand from Japanese companies prompting more short-covering by speculators but with Japanese exporters also selling dollars.

The greenback rose 0.4 percent from late New York levels to 89.98 yen, after forging a high for the day at 90.23. However, it is down about 3 percent this month.

"After seeing a sharp drop yesterday, the market is in a corrective mood," said a senior trader for a Japanese brokerage firm.

The euro also gained on the yen, rising 0.4 percent to 131.58 after dipping to a two-month low of 129.84 on EBS on Monday. Sterling, which hit a five-month trough of 139.70 yen the previous day, rose 0.6 percent to 143.21 yen.

AUSSIE IN SPOTLIGHT

The Australian dollar gained on the U.S. dollar on Monday and held its ground at $0.8741, not far below a 13-month high of $0.8790 set last week.

While higher stocks and commodities lent it support at the margins, the Aussie was buoyed by renewed talk that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would start raising rates in November.

That speculation received a shot in the arm after local central bank watcher Terry McCrann said the RBA is almost certain to hike rates by 25 basis points each in November and December, from a record low of 3 percent now. He did not cite any sources.

Based on overnight indexed swaps, investors were pricing in a 64 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in November, and fully pricing a rise in December.

That would make the high-yielding Aussie an even more attractive bet for investors searching for better returns on the back of a economic recovery.

The euro held steady on the day at $1.4620, while the battered pound rose 0.2 percent to $1.5902 after hitting a four-month low of $1.5770 on Monday.

The dollar index slipped 0.1 percent to 76.938.

Investors will keep an eye for a raft of economic data from the United States and Europe.

In the U.S., there is the September consumer confidence report and a house price update from Case/Shiller for July. In Europe, euro zone economic confidence reports and the final estimate of second-quarter UK gross domestic product (GDP) are due. (Additional reporting by Satomi Noguchi and Rika Otsuka in TOKYO and Anirban Nag in SYDNEY; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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