CORRECTED - FOREX-Dollar gains broadly, euro stalls below $1.40

Published 10/26/2010, 04:54 PM

(CORRECTS first bullet point to show yen down, not up)

* Yen slips; Japan minister warns more steps could be taken

* Caution sparks hedging ahead of Fed meeting

* Sterling rises on stronger-than-expected growth data (Updates prices, adds comment)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Tuesday after the euro again lost momentum near $1.40, while the yen fell from a 15-year peak after a Japanese minister called gains one-sided and warned that authorities could act to stem further yen strength.

Although both the euro and yen were within recent well-worn ranges, some traders said the U.S. currency was benefiting from a creeping sense that the Federal Reserve may proceed more cautiously than previously thought if it launches a new round of monetary easing when it meets next week.

Few doubt the Fed's intention to announce plans to buy more U.S. government bonds, a process that would push down U.S. interest rates and undermine the dollar's appeal to investors.

But some said traders were getting cautious as the Nov. 2-3 policy meeting draws closer and after the 10-year Treasury yield snapped out of a downtrend and rose above 2.60 percent.

"The big question is what happens once we get past the Fed event," said BNP Paribas strategist Sebastien Galy. "If you're highly levered in a single position, you look for ways to hedge exposure to disappointment, because it gets dangerous when everyone has the same position."

Markets have priced in about $500 billion of Fed bond purchases over six months.

"It's all based on reality versus expectations," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "If the Fed announces easing in excess of, say, $800 billion, that would help push the dollar down," he said, while the dollar "could see a sharp rebound if investors are disappointed."

CAUTION WEAKENS EURO

The euro fell 0.8 percent to $1.3848 , breaking through support at $1.3866, its 21-day simple moving average. It failed to close above $1.40 on Monday.

Demand for "out-of-the-money" puts on the S&P 500 index and dollar calls against the euro have risen, traders said.

With U.S. interest rates already near zero, another round of asset purchases would be "one of the last bullets the Fed has in its gun, and it's gong to be very reluctant to fire it unless circumstances are really dire," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.

The Fed bought $1.7 trillion in mortgage-backed and government bonds during a first round of quantitative easing.

Galy said the trend may continue beyond the Fed meeting as well, as investors look to lock in profits ahead of year end.

On the euro, CitiFX strategists said they had closed long euro bets against the dollar, sterling and Swiss franc.

Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange, said the euro could fall as low as $1.3750 in the short term and said it would probably struggle to rise back above $1.40 for fundamental as well as technical reasons.

"Even after the Fed meeting, we think the euro's hit a top against the dollar, and protests in France are reminding people of the problems European governments there are going to have as they implement austerity packages," he said.

STERLING UP, TRADERS EYEING YEN

A report showing U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in October helped the dollar on the margins, but it was sterling that got the biggest boost from economic data, rising 0.7 percent to $1.5835 after a report showed the UK economy grew more rapidly than thought in the second quarter.

The dollar was up 0.9 percent at 81.48 yen after Japan's finance minister, Yoshihiko Noda, warned the government would "act decisively" in markets if needed. [ID:nTOE69O09F]

Japan intervened to sell the yen in September for the first time since 2004, and markets fear a second round of yen selling if the currency nears 80 per dollar. Traders said Japanese life insurers and banks were among the yen sellers on Tuesday. (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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