FOREX-Dollar gains as investors reduce short bets

Published 10/27/2010, 09:58 AM
Updated 10/27/2010, 10:04 AM

* Dollar index moves between gains and losses year to date

* Dollar rises to 2-week high vs yen, 1-wk high vs euro

* Fed eyes gradual bond buys; several hundred bln dlrs-WSJ (Updates prices, adds comment, changes dateline, previous LONDON)

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Wednesday, leaving the dollar index little changed year to date, as investors eased short bets against the currency ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting.

While Fed meetings are always of paramount interest, the coming statement is more anticipated than usual given the central banks has telegraphed several times that it will add to the liquidity in the system to stoke economic growth through additional quantitative easing.

The only questions now are by how much and whether the new measures will be implemented over time or phased in.

With expectations that QE will be implemented in steps, some investors are more willing to take bets on the dollar if it gains traction, the QE will bolster the economic outlook compared with other regions such as the euro zone.

And The Wall Street Journal reported the Fed would make bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, which compared with investors' base-case scenario for an initial commitment to buy at least $500 billion.

The dollar hit a two-week high against the yen and a one-week peak versus the euro, which was also knocked by euro zone banks taking up more cheap funding than expected at a three-month ECB tender.

The greenback jumped against the Australian dollar too and hit a one-month high against the Swiss franc.

"The dollar's slide since September has been pricing in aggressive price action by the Fed to around $1 trillion," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. "Some stabilization, Fed official comments and the Wall Street Journal article have resulted in investors paring back those aggressive expectations. Given the price action we can assume they are trimming those short dollar bets."

In a Reuters survey earlier this month, U.S. primary dealers' projections for the size of the Fed's expected quantitative easing at its Nov. 2-3 policy meeting ranged from $500 billion to $1.5 trillion.

In early New York trade, the euro was down 0.3 percent at $1.3820. It earlier fell as low as $1.3770 on electronic trading platform EBS as a break of an option barrier at $1.3800 accelerated selling.

The dollar trimmed gains versus the euro on Wednesday after data showing U.S. durable goods orders rose more than expected in September, though they fell when transportation equipment was excluded.

Traders reported central banks and other major players looking to buy the euro on dips below $1.38. Bids were expected around $1.3750/60. A break of $1.3750 could prompt a test of last week's low around $1.3695.

Many analysts believe the gap between euro zone and U.S. short-term rates, reflecting QE expectations from the Fed while the ECB gradually withdraws liquidity, will mean the euro is unlikely to fall below $1.35 in the next month or two particularly while investors wait to see the impact of the Fed measures.

DOLLAR SUPPORTED

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.2 percent at 77.864 and is moving back and forth between marginal gains and losses for the year to date.

Against the yen, the dollar rose as high as 81.99 yen on electronic trading platform EBS, pulling further away from a 15-year low of 80.41 yen struck earlier this week. It last traded at 81.60 yen.

Traders said a fair amount of overnight 82.00 yen strikes were bought on Tuesday, suggesting that area could act as resistance going into Wednesday's 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) cut -- when many trades expire. Option-related stops were then highlighted at 82.15 yen.

The Aussie dollar was down 1.3 percent at $0.9720, dented by a smaller-than-expected rise in Australian consumer prices last quarter which was seen as reducing the chances of future interest rate hikes.

Spot yuan closed down against the dollar on Wednesday after the People's Bank of China set another weaker mid-point in a move seen aimed at curbing mounting speculation of further yuan appreciation..

(Additional reporting by Tamawa Desai) (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

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