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FOREX-Dollar fragile as stocks, commodities firm

Published 09/10/2009, 04:34 AM
Updated 09/10/2009, 04:36 AM
BNPP
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* Dollar off deepest of week's lows but vulnerable

* Risk rally seen starting to look stretched

* Aussie slips after weaker-than-expected jobs data

(Updates, changes byline, dateline previously TOKYO)

By Emelia Sithole-Matarise

LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered close to its lowest in almost a year against a basket of major currencies on Thursday as firmer share and commodity prices undermined flows into the lower-yielding U.S. currency.

Investors booked gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars, driving them down from this week's one-year highs but the dollar still looked fragile as benchmark world stocks hit a fresh 11-month high.

The dollar has suffered as investors bet on economic recovery through commodity-linked and higher-yielding currencies but some in the market said the risk rally was starting to look stretched which could see a rebound in the greenback.

"We'll still be looking for some further gains from some of the major pro-cyclical and commodity currencies but there are some risks now starting to develop which suggest that these moves are likely to start running out of steam," said Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas.

"The decline in the dollar is now starting to run out of steam and the chances are it will probably start to rebound."

The dollar index, which tracks its performance against a basket of six major currencies, edged down 0.1 percent to 77.01. The index dipped to 76.803 on Wednesday, its lowest level in almost a year.

Against the yen, the dollar was 0.1 percent firmer on the day at 92.14 yen, up from Wednesday's seven-month low of 91.61 yen on trading platform EBS after short-term players covered short positions.

Traders said options triggers were expected at 91.50 yen, and options desks had been buying dollars in option-related hedging, preventing it from falling further.

They also expect Japanese importers will be dollar buyers at these kind of levels but as September is the end of the fiscal first half the market is waiting to see whether inflows of capital into Japan will pick up.

Others said Japanese exporters were not moving to sell the dollar for now as its slide remained gradual, but it was likely they would lower their selling orders, currently mostly above 93.50 yen, towards the end of the fiscal half year this month.

The euro inched up 0.1 percent to $1.4575, holding on to a 0.5 percent gain made on Wednesday when it hit a 2009 high above $1.4600. It has a key chart level at $1.4620, which is a 61.8 percent retracement of its fall from July 2008 to October last year.

BOE EYED

The New Zealand dollar eased 0.3 percent to $0.6975, dropping from just below Wednesday's one-year high above $0.7000 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor said it was overvalued and after weaker-than-expected Australian jobs data.

Earlier the RBNZ left rates on hold at a record low of 2.5 percent as expected but indicated it was less inclined to cut rates again.

The Australian dollar fell after data showed Australia's employment dropped by 27,100 jobs in August, more than double a Reuters forecast of 12,500, although the jobless rate held steady at 5.8 percent, better than the 5.9 percent forecast.

Speculation has been high that Australia will raise rates before the end of the year. But implied rates, based on money market and swap rates, cut the chance of an October hike to 16 percent from around 30 percent before the jobs report.

The Aussie slipped 0.4 percent to $0.8591, retreating from Wednesday's one-year high of $0.8669.

Later in the day, the Bank of England concludes a two-day monetary policy meeting and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Still, there is an outside chance it might decide to expand its quantitative easing programme.

The pound was 0.1 percent weaker at $1.6522 after touching a three-week high on Wednesday, and lost some ground against the euro which fetched 88.21 pence by 0811 GMT.

Also, the Bank of Canada meets and is expected to keep its conditional commitment to maintaining rates at 0.25 percent. (Additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko in Tokyo; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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