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FOREX-Dollar firm as late 2008 euro rally fizzles

Published 01/02/2009, 04:43 AM
Updated 01/02/2009, 04:45 AM
BAC
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* Dollar firm as euro on defensive, rally overblown

* Dollar index up 0.2 percent

* Moves exacerbated by thin holiday conditions

* Euro zone mfg PMI falls to 33.9 in December, 11-yr low

(Updates throughout, changes dateline prvs HONG KONG)

By Tamawa Desai

LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The dollar started 2009 on a firm tone on Friday, with the euro on the defensive after retreating broadly earlier in the session on perceptions that the single currency's recent rally may have been overdone.

A fall in euro zone manufacturing activity to an 11-year low didn't help the already soft sentiment toward the euro, while trade was choppy as liquidity remained thin with Tokyo and other Asian markets closed for the New Year holidays.

The euro lost ground against the dollar and fell back from record peaks against sterling, as a drive towards parity ran out of steam.

"There was a lot of profit-taking in long dollar positions (in recent sessions). Illiquid markets have exacerbated the euro's recent rally," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Market players were also starting to turn against the euro on the view that European growth will likely suffer for longer on expectations the European Central Bank will continue taking a gradualist approach to cutting rates, compared with other central banks which have eased aggressively.

By 0908 GMT, the euro was down 0.3 percent against the dollar at $1.3949, having earlier hit a session low of $1.3841.

The single currency was at 95.54 pence, after dropping more than one percent in Asian trade, taking its losses in the past two trading days to three percent.

Earlier this week it hit a record 98.05 pence.

"The fall in euro/sterling is likely the result of profit-taking on sterling shorts with the pair having been deep in overbought territory and most of the bad news for the UK economy having already been priced in," said David Powell, currency strategist at Bank of America.

On the data front, the final reading of the Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector fell to 33.9 in December, a low not seen in the survey's 11-year history and well below the 34.5 flash estimate and 34.5 forecast by economists.

Traders will also keep a close eye on U.S. Institute for Supply Management's December manufacturing index at 1500 GMT on Friday. Markets expect a reading of 35.5 versus 36.2 in November.

The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, rose 0.2 percent to 81.30.

Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.3 percent to 91.10.

Although extremely volatile moves seem to have subsided recently, risk aversion is expected to remain a factor in 2009, especially as major economies are headed for a steep downturn before recovery.

"Financial conditions may continue to improve gradually, but economic distress will likely keep risk aversion high," said BTM-UFJ's Hardman.

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