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FOREX-Dollar falls to 14-month low vs euro

Published 10/14/2009, 09:24 AM
Updated 10/14/2009, 09:27 AM
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* Dollar index falls to 14-month low

* JPMorgan earnings, global recovery optimism dent dollar

* U.S. retail sales data has minimal impact (Recasts, updates prices, adds detail, adds quotes; changes dateline, previous LONDON, byline)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped to a 14-month low against a basket of currencies and the euro on Wednesday, dented by expectations that solid JPMorgan Chase results and rising stock and commodity prices bode well for an improving global economy.

JPMorgan Chase & Co reported a sharp rise in third-quarter results as underwriting revenue at its investment bank offset deeper losses on credit cards and other consumer loans. [ID:nLE225971]

The buoyant results followed forecast-beating earnings from Intel Corp late on Tuesday and upbeat Chinese trade data on Wednesday, all of which helped brighten the economic outlook and encouraged investors to move into perceived riskier and higher-yielding currencies.

The U.S. dollar meanwhile remained under broad selling pressure on expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay at very low levels for some time. Low rates will reduce the attractiveness of U.S. assets and ease demand for the dollars to buy them.

"On the back of a solid start to earnings season and strong trade and loan growth releases from China, investors are widely seeking risk today," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto in a note to clients. "This has helped push equities and commodities higher and the USD and bond prices lower."

In early New York trade, the euro was last up 0.3 percent $1.4900 after going to its highest since August 2008. Many in the market see the euro climbing higher and some analysts see a break above $1.50 in coming weeks.

Against the yen , the dollar fell 0.2 percent to 89.55.

A rally in the dollar against the yen after U.S. retail sales data showed a smaller than expected decline was shortlived. [ID:nN13191112].

"The data was pretty solid across the board. It helps support the story that the recovery is building steam and that some of the optimism is justified, although I still don't buy it," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

The yen also drew support from a senior Japanese official who signaled yen-weakening intervention was undesirable. [ID:nT362093].

SHARES RALLY

The better-than-forecast results from JP Morgan and Intel Corp helped push the MSCI all-country world index <.MIWD00000PUS> to a one-year high.

For a graphic on the correlation between euro/dollar and world stocks, click on http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/109/GLB_MKTH1009.gif

The dollar index <.DXY>, which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, slid to 75.436, a trough last seen in August 2008. The Swiss franc rose to around 1.0167 francs versus the dollar, its highest since July 2008.

The Australian and Canadian dollars also hit their strongest since August 2008, while the Norwegian crown rose to its firmest since September 2008 as U.S. crude oil prices jumped to a 2009 high and gold to a record high. [O/R] [GOL/]

Analysts said higher share prices would continue to pummel the dollar on the view that an improving economy would decrease demand for safe-haven dollars.

"We have seen the correlation between the equity market and euro/dollar has declined slightly in the past month, but it is still high by historical standards," said Kasper Kirkegaard, currency strategist at Danske Markets in Copenhagen.

Also pressuring the dollar were comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, who on Tuesday said the economy would not snap back quickly from its deep recession, bolstering the view for low U.S. rates. [ID:nN13198041]

(Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou in New York and Jessica Mortimer in London) (Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

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