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FOREX-Dollar falls broadly as risk appetite increases

Published 11/16/2009, 11:53 AM
Updated 11/16/2009, 11:57 AM
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* Dollar down; risk appetite boosts stocks, gold

* U.S., China fail to agree on currency position

* US retail sales rise more than expected

* Australian dollar hits fresh 15-month peak vs greenback (Updates prices, adds comment, detail)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday as U.S. retail sales rose and traders took discord on exchange rates among Asian and U.S. leaders as a cue to sell the greenback.

The United States and China failed to reach an agreement on currencies at an Asia Pacific summit, suggesting China may not be ready to let the yuan rise against the dollar and prompting investors to sell dollars against free-floating currencies such as the euro. For details, see [ID:nSP43459].

With markets expecting record low U.S. interest rates to persist well into 2010, investors continued to favor higher-yielding currencies and assets over the dollar.

U.S. and European stock indexes rose more than 1 percent and gold hit a record high, while the euro neared $1.50 and the Australian dollar soared to a 15-month peak.

A bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. retail sales last month further boosted market confidence before a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

"The data was by and large decent, and since good data at this point isn't going to ease the Federal Reserve's underlying concerns about employment and credit conditions, (the Fed's) not likely to raise rates soon," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Bernanke, set to speak at 12:15 p.m. (1715 GMT) has signaled interest rates will remain low for some time yet.

The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.4965 after stopping just shy of $1.50 earlier. Sterling rose 0.6 percent to $1.6785 while the dollar fell 0.4 percent at 89.37 yen , with the yen getting a boost from data showing Japan's economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years between July and September.

Rising risk appetite also lifted the Australian dollar to a fresh 15-month high of $0.9376 . It last changed hands at $0.9361, up 0.3 percent from late Friday.

EXCHANGE RATE DISCORD IN ASIA

Investors were also encouraged to sell the dollar against major currencies because of the clouded outlook for China's yuan. A communique at the Asia Pacific summit in Singapore omitted a reference to "market-oriented exchange rates," suggesting China may not be ready to let the yuan rise gradually against the dollar.

Traders said that bolstered market resolve to sell the dollar against the euro and other freely floating currencies. The yuan's peg to the dollar keeps the Chinese currency weak against the U.S. currency.

"Chinese currency policy is unchanged, which means that they'll still be forced to accumulate and swap more and more dollars for euros," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London.

The disagreement between Washington and Beijing comes as U.S. President Barack Obama visits China.

With U.S. interest rates expected to stay low, analysts expect the euro to climb above $1.50 in the near term, despite two failed attempts to make a sustained break above the level in the past month. A climb above $1.5064 -- last month's peak -- would mark its highest in 15 months.

Recent data on speculator positioning shows net short positions in the U.S. currency rising against the euro, the yen and the Swiss franc last week. (Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu and Jamie McGeever in London; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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