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FOREX-Dollar falls as risk appetite improves

Published 06/30/2009, 07:27 AM
Updated 06/30/2009, 07:48 AM

* Dollar index down 0.2 percent at 79.646

* Moves exacerbated by month-end, quarter-end flows

* Sterling hits 8-mth high vs dlr, trims gains after weak UK GDP (adds quote, updates prices, adds details)

By Harpreet Bhal

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday, supported by an easing in risk aversion after gains in stock markets and oil prices reflected an upbeat view on the prospects of global economic recovery.

Sterling hit an eight-month high against the dollar, while the U.S. currency came under pressure against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as share markets in Asia rose and U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open.

Currency movements were also exacerbated by month-end and quarter-end flows, analysts said.

"We came out of the Asian session with a relatively positive stance on the world. The two things combined (the spike in oil prices and rallying equity markets) did lead to a degree of positive sentiment in the market," said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon.

The expectation of global economic improvement gained support from the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, which dipped to its lowest level since just before Lehman Brothers collapsed last September.

By 1038 GMT, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.2 percent to 79.646. The index is on track for its worst quarterly performance since Q4 2004, down some 6.8 percent.

Sterling trimmed gains after weaker-than-expected UK gross domestic product (GDP) figures suggested the economy would continue to struggle. The pound fell to around $1.6588 as data showed the economy contracted 2.4 percent in the three months to March, the biggest decline in 50 years.

The pound had earlier climbed to around $1.6745, the highest since last October, according to Reuters data, after data showed UK house prices rose for the second straight month in June.

The euro was up 0.4 percent at $1.4125 while the dollar was down 0.3 percent against the yen at 95.80 yen.

The Australian dollar climbed 0.8 percent to $0.8130 while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.2 percent at $0.6510.

RECOVERY LOOMS

Stock markets have rallied since lows hit in March, boosting views that the global economy could be on the road to recovery.

The MSCI global stocks index was on course for its best quarter since its launch in 1988, up some 22.5 percent, while oil hit an 8-month high of $73.38 a barrel.

"Risk appetite is set to improve further in H2 2009 but as with economic recovery, the improvement will be gradual and prone to setbacks," analysts at Calyon said in a note.

Ratings agency Fitch said the global economy has probably stopped shrinking and will slowly begin to recover during the second half, echoing a similarly positive outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, data on Tuesday showed money supply growth in the euro zone still lagged. Growth of M3 slowed to 3.7 percent in May from a year ago, from 4.9 in April and below forecasts of 4.6 percent.

Loans to euro zone businesses and households grew at their slowest pace on record in May, underscoring the need for a quick impact from the European Central Bank's 442 billion euro liquidity injection last week.

Euro zone consumer prices fell for the first time ever in June, dropping 0.1 percent year-on-year. Declining prices may help to boost consumer demand, which is key to restoring economic growth. (Additional reporting by Tamawa Desai, Editing by David Stamp)

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