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FOREX-Dollar falls across the board as risk demand rises

Published 07/20/2009, 09:02 AM
Updated 07/20/2009, 09:08 AM
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* Euro/dollar, dollar index hit 6-week high

* Positive U.S. corporate earnings boost risk demand

* CIT Group strikes last-minute rescue deal (Changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON; adds comment, updates prices)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Monday, falling to a six-week low against the euro, as investors waded back into riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies amid solid U.S. corporate earnings so far for the second quarter.

A further pick-up in risk appetite pushed the euro as high as $1.4248, according to Reuters data, its strongest since early June, which helped push the dollar to a six-week trough against a major currency basket. The yen also was under broad pressure.

A last-minute rescue of ailing lender CIT Group late on Sunday also helped boost risk sentiment. ID:nLK693118.

"Clearly the theme for the session has been improved risk appetite and that has weighed on the U.S. dollar and yen," said Omer Esiner, senior market analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington. "That was largely fueled by more or less positive U.S. corporate earnings and Sunday's bailout of CIT by its bondholders."

Assets considered to be higher risk extended gains after rallying last week when investors took mixed U.S. corporate earnings as an optimistic sign that the economy is improving.

But volumes were light with Tokyo shut for a local holiday.

In early New York trading, the euro rose 0.9 percent to $1.4221. A climb above $1.4337 touched in early June would take the pair to its highest level of the year.

The ICE Futures' dollar index was down 0.6 percent at 78.881, after falling as low as 78.799, its lowest since early June.

The U.S. currency struggled broadly, pushing sterling and the Australian and New Zealand currencies each up as much as 1.5 percent, with the New Zealand dollar rising near its highest level of the year.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 94.44 yen , while the euro gained 1.2 percent to 134.31 yen.

SEEING IS BELIEVING

But whether positive corporate earnings and the bullish price action could be sustained is still open to debate.

In the past two weeks, analysts have noted that the stock market's rally has occurred despite what seemed to be broad expectations for a pullback and correction to the spring rally. HSBC in a research note pointed out that at least some of the recent gains may have come from a "squeeze" in prices as some traders were positioned for that pullback.

"We're not sure that a lot more people now 'believe' that the stock market will continue to rally from here," said HSBC.

Growing expectations of an improvement in the U.S. economy have sent investors searching for higher yields.

The dollar fell last week after Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter, and remained under pressure even as Bank of America posted a lower quarterly profit.

U.S. banks reporting this week include American Express, State Street and Bank of New York Mellon.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will offer his semi-annual testimony to Congress. Analysts expect Bernanke to issue a fairly upbeat assessment of the economy, and the focus will be on whether he makes any reference to a possible exit strategy from quantitative easing. (Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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