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FOREX-Dollar falls, sterling slumps on rate outlooks

Published 05/03/2011, 12:19 PM
Updated 05/03/2011, 12:24 PM
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* Dollar rebound fades, euro, Swiss franc rise

* Sterling slumps; weak data casts doubt on rate hikes

* Rate outlook, fiscal issues leave dollar vulnerable

(Recasts, updates prices, adds detail, comment)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - The dollar was near a 17-month trough against the euro and hit a record low against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as expectations U.S. interest rates would stay low indefinitely dulled demand for the greenback.

Among major currencies, only sterling was down sharply against the dollar, falling after weak factory data cast doubt on when the Bank of England would lift interest rates.

The European Central Bank raised rates last month for the first time since 2008 and is expected to do so again this year, though traders expect it to stand pat when it meets this week.

The euro was up 0.4 percent at $1.4874, more than a cent above its session low and near Monday's 17-month high above $1.49. It rose 1.1 percent to 89.94 pence.

"The story has been about divergent rate expectations," said Wells Fargo strategist Vassili Serebriakov. "The Fed is on hold and now the BoE may be coming out of the picture. The ECB is uniquely the only major central bank expected to raise rates, and that benefits the euro."

The dollar had earlier posted broader gains as investors took profits after weeks of steady selling took it to a three-year low against major currencies on Monday.

But by late morning, it was either flat or weaker against all major currencies save sterling.

"The backdrop hasn't changed, and there's really no trigger for a sustained (dollar) rally," said David Watt, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

The dollar has lost nearly 8 percent against major currencies this year -- almost 4 percent in April alone -- and that prompted a brief bit of profit-taking overnight

Some analysts have tied the retreat of higher-yield currencies and assets such as oil to fears of reprisal after U.S. special forces killed Osama bin Laden, but Watt said that sounded like "an excuse to take profits."

The dollar hit a record low of 0.8595 Swiss francs and shed 0.3 percent to trade at 80.98 yen. The Swiss and Japanese currencies often rise when risk appetite fades.

But the U.S. currency hardly looks ready to stage a sustained rally, analysts said, particularly with the U.S. central bank hinting that interest rates will remain at zero for some time and with markets fretting about Washington's ability to get a yawning federal budget deficit under control.

Emerging market currencies, which unlike some majors are far from overvalued against the dollar, will also continue to appreciate, which will keep the dollar under pressure.

BNP Paribas strategists said a euro retreat below $1.47, may prove an opportunity for traders to "look for even better levels to re-set dollar shorts" ahead of Thursday's ECB policy meeting and Friday's U.S. employment data.

Hawkish comments about inflation from the ECB and any sign of slower U.S. job growth on Friday could add to dollar selling, they said.

"It's very much a case of buying the dips in euro/dollar at these levels. Rate hike expectations are anchoring the euro," said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS in London.

The Australian dollar fell after the central bank left interest rates at 4.75 percent but sounded a bit less hawkish than expected. But it recovered from session lows and was last down just 0.2 percent at $1.0916, not far from Monday's $1.1011, its highest level in nearly three decades.

The Canadian dollar rose up modestly after Canada's ruling Conservatives won a crushing victory in the federal election. and

(Additional reporting by Neal Armstrong in London; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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