Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

FOREX-Dollar falls, euro up on contrasting policy views

Published 10/13/2010, 08:04 AM
Updated 10/13/2010, 08:08 AM
EUR/GBP
-
EUR/JPY
-
EUR/CHF
-

* Euro strong below $1.40 after Fed minutes, Weber comments

* Euro break above $1.4025-45 would open way to more gains

* Dollar up vs yen, at record low vs Swissie, index soft

(Adds quote, updates prices)

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The dollar came under broad selling pressure on Wednesday, with investors pushing it towards key lows against the euro, the Swiss franc and a basket of currencies on more signs pointing to U.S. monetary easing.

The euro hit $1.40 in European trade and looked set to challenge its eight-month high at $1.4030 after Federal Reserve minutes on Tuesday reinforced expectations of more quantitative easing. [ID:nN12188145]

Dealers said hawkish comments on Tuesday from European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber highlighted the difference in direction between Fed and ECB policy, giving the euro an added lift. [ID:nN12121001]

The euro struggled to sustain a move above the key psychological $1.40 level, however. A firm break above $1.4025-45, particularly a weekly close above $1.4030, was seen heralding further gains.

"Little has changed on the dollar front, but more QE from the Fed has now become more of a likely reality," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

"The market wants to sell the dollar, but there is inevitably nervousness ahead of key levels." In addition to $1.40 in euro/dollar, he cited $1.60 in sterling and $0.99 in the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar.

At 1137 GMT, the euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.3969 after earlier briefly peeping above $1.40 on steady buying by Asian central banks, but traders and analysts said stops and options barriers at that level were helping cap gains.

The single currency gained across the board, climbing against the yen , sterling and the Swiss franc .

"In the G4 space, the ECB is the only central bank that is talking of an exit policy and that is helping the euro," said Ankita Dudani, G-10 currency strategist at RBS.

The dollar index <.DXY> was down 0.35 percent at 77.093, not far from a nine-month low of 76.906 set last week. It has shed more than 4 percent since the Fed's last meeting on Sept. 21.

The dollar also eased to a record low of 0.9546 Swiss francs while the Australian dollar was at $0.9883, edging back towards last week's 28-year high of $0.9918.

FED QE PRICED IN?

Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 21 meeting showed officials thought the struggling U.S. recovery might soon need more help and they discussed ways to provide it, including adopting a price-level target and buying longer-term U.S. government debt.

The market has gone very short of dollars on QE expectations recently and some analysts say this raises the risk of a rebound, particularly if the Fed opts for a much smaller QE programme than the $1 trillion in asset purchases some forecast. [FED/R]

"The move is already priced in. If anything we will see the dollar strengthening, especially if they come out with a conservative plan to feed the QE gradually," said Chris Huddleston, head of money markets at Investec Treasury Solutions.


Currency tensions map: http://r.reuters.com/jec96p

PDF report on currencies: http://r.reuters.com/gez77p

Graphic on futures positioning http://r.reuters.com/kus26k


The dollar was steady against the yen at 81.79 yen , supported by nervousness that Japanese authorities could intervene the closer it gets to its record low of 79.75 yen. The dollar hit a 15-year low of 81.37 yen on Monday.

(Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.