FOREX-Dollar ekes out modest gains, choppy times ahead

Published 10/19/2010, 04:25 AM
Updated 10/19/2010, 04:28 AM

* Dollar index inches higher, euro cedes more ground

* Market awaits a host of Fed speakers for clues on QE

(Updates prices; changes byline, dateline; previous TOKYO)

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The dollar gained against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, backed by worries among some players that the monetary easing expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve next month is already largely priced in.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's comment that the United States would not engage in dollar devaluation and needed to work hard to preserve confidence in a strong dollar, also offered some support to the ailing greenback.

"Comments from Geithner and a reversal in short dollar positions is pushing it higher," said Gareth Berry, currency strategist at UBS, Singapore. "But this will not last too long with many waiting to see what the Fed will do next month." Investors have been selling the dollar for weeks on expectations the Federal Reserve will decide to pump more cash into the U.S. economy at its Nov. 2-3 meeting.

But currencies like the euro and the Australian dollar that had broken higher ground against the dollar are giving up some of those gains -- suggesting markets think much of the trade is done.

But the market still has to wait and see how sizeable the QE will actually be. Until then, traders and analysts said short-term players were simply flipping positions within tight ranges.

The dollar index firmed 0.5 percent to 77.34. Technical analysts say it needs to extend above its Oct. 12 high of 77.93 to signal a short-term bottom is in place after Friday's 10-month trough of 76.144.

A host of speakers from the Fed are due to speak on Tuesday. More and more policymakers are signing up for QE, so any indications on how far the U.S. central bank will go to stimulate the economy could weigh on the dollar.

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, is scheduled to give brief remarks while New York Fed President William Dudley, Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans, Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher are expected to speak later in the day.

G20 EFFORTS

Analysts said Geithner's comments on the U.S. dollar ahead of the G-20 meeting meant the U.S. was probably trying to work out an agreement with emerging economies which would ease the currency tensions that have marked the past few weeks.

"We are seeing the U.S. give up some ground as his comments indicate that QE may be a gradualist approach and Asian economies need not worry too much about a falling dollar," said Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas.

"A gradual approach to QE will have a less impact on the dollar."

A number of Asian and emerging countries have stepped up intervention or imposed capital controls to stem a rapid appreciation in their currencies against the dollar which many feel can harm exports.

The euro dipped 0.24 percent to $1.3912, well below Friday's eight-month high, with investors awaiting the influential German ZEW survey for October.

The euro has so far failed to clear $1.4000 again since Friday's surge above $1.4100. This was seen by some as a warning that more long euro/short dollar positions could unwind, with the euro's Oct. 12 low of $1.3775 seen as a possible target.

The dollar edged up 0.12 percent against the yen to 81.35 yen, creeping further away from a 15-year low of 80.88 hit last week and a record low of 79.75 set in 1995.

Earlier in the day, there was talk of dollar selling by Japanese exporters at levels near 81.30 yen.

The Australian dollar fell 0.13 percent to $0.9885, paring earlier losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its Oct. 5 meeting said the arguments to hold or hike rates were finely balanced.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in Tokyo; Editing by Patrick Graham)

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