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FOREX-Dollar down as markets await Fed statement

Published 12/16/2009, 11:06 AM
Updated 12/16/2009, 11:09 AM
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* Dollar retreats from 2-1/2-month high ahead of Fed

* Euro holds above $1.45 support

* U.S. consumer price data shows modest rise in November

* Markets watching for any mention of Fed policy exit

(Updates prices, adds detail)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Wednesday as traders' inability to push the euro below $1.45 prompted traders to square positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and statement later in the day.

Data showing tame consumer price inflation also hurt the dollar because it suggests the Fed need not rush to lift interest rates from record lows or offer concrete plans for winding down some of its emergency economic support programs.

Sterling rose after a surprisingly strong UK employment report, and the Australian dollar fell after weak growth data suggested interest rates may stay put for now.

A run of strong U.S. data lately had raised speculation that the Fed could hike rates sooner than expected, and that helped send the euro to a 2-1/2-month low on Tuesday, before sovereign and options-related buying averted a break of $1.45.

"I don't think the Fed will want to say too much that rocks the boat at this time of the year," said Firas Askari, head of FX trading at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. "The recent dollar bounce on strong U.S. data is interesting and perhaps means markets are taking a longer view, but I don't think rates are going to be touched until next summer."

The euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.4580 after sliding to around $1.4512 earlier. The euro fell as low as $1.4503 on Tuesday, its weakest since early October.

Concern about some parts of the euro zone banking sector and sovereign creditworthiness this week may have overshot, aiding the euro's rebound back toward $1.46, said Michael Hart, strategist at Citigroup in London.

The currency showed limited reaction to the European Central Bank's final one-year liquidity operation at which banks borrowed 97 billion euros.

The dollar index was down 0.4 percent at 76.655, slipping further from the 2 1/2-month high of 77.092 the previous day. Against the yen, it was unchanged at 89.60 yen, pulling away from the day's low around 89.40 yen.

The dollar has lost more than 5 percent against a basket of currencies this year on the view that other central banks will raise rates before the Fed does.

Wednesday's inflation data supports that view, said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. "Stocks are up ... gold has pressed higher, so the dollar's taking a bit of a breather," he said.

STERLING GAINS

The Australian dollar was down 0.6 percent at $0.9008 after Australia's gross domestic product grew by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, less than forecast, while dovish central bank remarks prompted investors to trim expectations for tightening next year.

Sterling rallied after figures showed the claimant count fell in November, the first decline in almost two years. The pound was up 0.6 percent at $1.6376 and the euro fell through key 100-day moving average technical support at 89.25 pence to trade at 88.96 pence.

Norway's crown hit a three-week high against the euro and rose sharply against the dollar after the Norges Bank lifted interest rates for the second time in three months.

Most analysts expect the U.S. central bank, however, will stick to its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period," suggesting rates on hold well into 2010.

"The FOMC is likely to tweak the statement to note that conditions in financial markets have improved modestly since the last meeting," Barclays analysts said in a note.

"But the broader message should remain that the Fed does not expect to change its policy stance soon."

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