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FOREX-Dollar down as Fed seen keeping rates low

Published 11/18/2009, 10:01 AM
Updated 11/18/2009, 10:03 AM

* US dollar retreats after biggest rally in 3 weeks

* BoE minutes seen as relatively dovish; sterling hit

* US CPI up 0.3 percent, but core inflation tame

(Updates prices, adds comment, U.S. data, changes dateline, byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against most major currencies on Wednesday as dealers took profits on the currency's biggest rise in three weeks, with fresh data doing little to alter the view that U.S. interest rates will remain at record lows well into 2010.

Two reports showing slightly higher-than-expected U.S. inflation and a slide in new home construction helped cap euro gains below $1.50.

But most dealers say the dollar's longer-term declining trend is intact because, though the Fed may be in the very early stages of withdrawing its huge stimulus measures, it is still nowhere near raising interest rates from record lows.

That view was bolstered on Wednesday by St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who said officials may tighten policy by adjusting emergency asset buying programs rather than by raising interest rates.

"That throws cold water on any lingering thoughts of rate hikes," said Jacob Oubina, strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey, and offsets comments this week from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who triggered a dollar rally when he said the central bank was attentive to the dollar's value.

The euro rose 0.6 percent to $1.4960 EUR=>, off a session peak of $1.4977. The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 89.19 yen.

Bernanke's rare dollar comments, which were later echoed by other Fed officials and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, had pushed the euro down toward $1.48 on Tuesday.

Earlier reports showing a slight gain in U.S. consumer prices and a slide in housing starts undercut some foreign currency gains against the dollar on the view that a sluggish U.S. economy could undermine global recovery.

But that wasn't enough to change the Fed outlook. "We're not worried so much about inflation," said Amelia Bourdeau, senior strategist at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut. "Overall, it's still benign because the year-over-year figure was still negative."

Sterling slipped 0.2 percent to $1.6789 while the euro was up 0.8 percent at 89.13 pence.

The minutes of the Bank of England's Nov. 4-5 meeting showed a three-way split, with seven of its nine members voting to expand the bank's quantitative easing program by 25 billion pounds to 200 billion pounds.

But perhaps the biggest surprise was the discussion on potentially cutting the rate of remuneration it pays on bank reserves in the future. This could effectively serve to ease policy as it would encourage banks to lend more.

"Any hopes for an MPC-related boost to sterling is gone," said Daragh Maher, deputy head of FX strategy at Calyon in London.

Traders also digested U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to China, where he had talks with Premier Wen Jiabao on Wednesday, although few expect any near-term changes in Beijing's foreign exchange policy.

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