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FOREX-Dollar dips as markets square up before Fed

Published 12/16/2009, 09:23 AM
Updated 12/16/2009, 09:27 AM

* Dollar retreats from 2-1/2-month high ahead of Fed

* Euro holds above $1.45 support

* U.S. consumer price data shows modest rise in November

* Focus on whether Fed will indicate policy withdrawal

(Recasts, updates prices)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The dollar was mostly lower on Wednesday as traders' inability to push the euro below $1.45 prompted investors to square positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and statement later in the day.

The euro fell to a 2-1/2-month low against the greenback a day ago amid worries about euro zone banks, but strong sovereign and options-related buying averted a break below $1.45.

Sterling rose after a surprisingly strong UK employment report, while the Australian dollar fell after weak growth data suggested interest rates may stay put for now.

That left investors waiting for the Fed. The U.S. central bank is expected to leave interest rates at record lows, so all eyes are on its statement, which markets will parse for clues about when the Fed could start winding down loose monetary policy.

Recent strong readings on U.S. employment and retail sales have led to speculation that the Fed may lift rates sooner than expected, but whether it will signal this now is unclear. Data Wednesday showing a modest rise in consumer prices last month did little to boost the case for a hawkish Fed.

"I don't think the Fed will want to say too much that rocks the boat at this time of the year," said Firas Askari, head of FX trading at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. "The recent dollar bounce on strong U.S. data is interesting and perhaps means markets are taking a longer view, but I don't think rates are going to be touched until next summer."

The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.4545 after sliding to around $1.4512 earlier. The euro fell as low as $1.4503 on Tuesday, its weakest since early October.

Concern about some parts of the euro zone banking sector and sovereign creditworthiness this week may have overshot, said Michael Hart, strategist at Citigroup in London.

The euro showed limited reaction to the European Central Bank's final 1-year liquidity operation at which banks borrowed 97 billion euros.

The dollar index was down 0.2 percent at 76.81, slipping further from the 2 1/2-month high of 77.092 the previous day. Against the yen, it was unchanged at 89.70 yen, pulling away from the day's low around 89.40 yen.

STERLING GAINS

The Australian dollar was down 0.7 percent at $0.9000 after Australia's gross domestic product grew by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, less than forecast, while dovish central bank remarks prompted investors to trim expectations for tightening next year.

Sterling rallied after figures showed the claimant count fell in November, the first decline in almost two years. The pound was up 0.6 percent at $1.6370 and the euro fell through key 100-day moving average technical support at 89.25 pence to trade at 88.91 pence.

Norway's crown hit a three-week high against the euro and rose sharply against the dollar after the Norges Bank lifted interest rates for the second time in three months.

Most analysts expect the U.S. central bank, however, will stick to its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period" in its policy statement due this afternoon, suggesting rates will not start rising until later in 2010.

Any sign that the Fed intends to end its stimulus measures would be seen as the first step toward raising rates. That would help the dollar, which has suffered this year on the view that other central banks will raise rates before the Fed does.

"The FOMC is likely to tweak the statement to note that conditions in financial markets have improved modestly since the last meeting," Barclays analysts said in a note.

"But the broader message should remain that the Fed does not expect to change its policy stance soon."

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