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FOREX-Dollar dips as APEC, U.S. data boost risk demand

Published 11/16/2009, 09:21 AM
Updated 11/16/2009, 09:24 AM
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* Dollar slips, Asia summit offers limited FX direction

* US retail sales rise in Oct,NY manufacturing index slips

* U.S., China fail to agree on currency position

* Dollar index hovers near 15-month low

(Adds comment, updates prices, adds detail, changes dateline and byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Monday as U.S. retail sales rose and traders saw discord over exchange rates among Asian and U.S. leaders as a cue to sell the greenback against free-floating currencies such as the euro.

The U.S. currency also came under pressure with European shares rising 1 percent and gold hitting a fresh record high, suggesting increased investor risk tolerance.

A bigger-than-expected 1.4 percent rise in U.S. retail sales last month also encouraged risk given market expectations for U.S. interest rates to stay low well into 2010. For more, see [ID:nN16371323]

"The data was by and large decent, and since good data at this point isn't going to ease the Federal Reserve's underlying concerns about employment and credit conditions, they're not likely to raise rates soon," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Low U.S. interest rates make the dollar less attractive to global investors, particularly if other countries start lifting interest rates before the Fed.

The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.4966 and sterling rose 0.2 percent to $1.6727 . The dollar was down 0.3 percent at 89.41 yen , with the yen getting a modest boost from data showing Japan's economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years between July and September.

An index of New York State November manufacturing activity fell by more than expected, though its market impact was limited. [ID:nNYS007536]

EXCHANGE RATE DISCORD IN ASIA

Investors were also emboldened to sell the dollar against major currencies because the outlook for the dollar's exchange rate against China's yuan remained clouded.

A communique at the close of a two-day Asia Pacific summit in Singapore omitted a reference to "market-oriented exchange rates," suggesting China may not be ready to let the yuan rise gradually against the dollar. [ID:nSP43459]

Traders said that bolstered market resolve to sell the dollar against the euro and other freely floating currencies instead. The yuan's peg to the dollar keeps the Chinese currency weak against its U.S. counterpart.

"Chinese currency policy is unchanged, which means that they'll still be forced to accumulate and swap more and more dollars for euros," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London.

The disagreement between Washington and Beijing comes as U.S. President Barack Obama visits China this week.

The dollar has been battered in past months on speculation that U.S. rates will stay at virtually zero until well into next year, keeping the return on U.S. assets lower than those in other countries including Australia and Norway, where interest rates have already started rising.

As such, analysts expect the euro to climb above $1.50 in the near term, despite two failed attempts to make a sustained break above the level in the past month. A climb above $1.5064 -- last month's peak -- would mark its highest in 15 months.

Recent data on speculator positioning shows net short positions in the U.S. currency rising against the euro, the yen and the Swiss franc last week.

(Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu and Jamie McGeever in London; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )

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