FOREX-Dollar broadly soft but Japan spectre gives pause

Published 09/23/2010, 11:54 PM
Updated 09/23/2010, 11:56 PM

* Fall in U.S. yields helps support yen

* Traders wary of intervention, some eye 84 yen as target

* Obama-Kan meet does not mention FX, supporting dollar

* Euro bounces back after early dip

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Chances of more monetary easing by the Fed and falling U.S. yields put renewed pressure on the greenback on Friday, though wariness about Japanese intervention helped to keep it afloat against the yen.

Traders remained on guard against yen selling intervention by Japanese authorities, which have been absent since their large intervention on Wednesday last week.

"The market is expecting the Fed to adopt QE in November. That's putting the dollar on a downtrend," said Koichi Yoshikawa, head of forex trading at BNP Paribas.

He added that the dollar will likely fall against the yen too unless Japan intervenes. "It would be hard think that just the dollar/yen can somehow defy gravity."

An apparent lack of complaint by President Barack Obama on Japan's currency intervention is seen as mildly supporting the dollar against the yen.

Obama, who urged Chinese premier Wen Jiabao to take more action on the yuan on Thursday, did not mention currencies when he met with Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, Japan's Kydo news agency reported.

"There hasn't been any intervention even after the dollar fell below 85 yen, which some in the market had thought could be the line in the sand. That may lead to speculation that Japan's real defence line is around 82-83 yen," said Keiji Matsumoto, a strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities.

"Nonetheless, many market players will remain wary of intervention for now after their huge intervention," Matsumoto added.

The dollar traded at 84.55 yen, up 0.2 percent from late U.S. levels, but not far from a post-intervention low of 84.26 hit on Thursday.

Japan intervened on Sept. 15 minutes after the dollar hit a 15-year low of 82.87 yen, selling an estimated 2 trillion yen ($23.70 billion) in Japan's largest single-day yen selling intervention.

Some speculate that the authorities may avoid stepping into the markets just below 83 yen as that would appear to confirm market speculation that their line in the sand is 82-83 yen.

"The authorities may not want to confirm that, so either they will intervene just below 84 or let dollar/yen fall below the level that the market thought could be the line in the sand," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan at Barclays Capital.

Putting pressure on the greenback are shrinking yield gaps between the dollar and the yen.

The two-year bond yield spread fell to around 29 basis points, the lowest in nearly two years, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt quantitative easing brought U.S. bond yields closer to Japanese yields.

The market will be closely looking at remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a lecture at 2030 GMT for clarity on the bank's stance towards more easing.

As the dollar broadly weakened, the euro edged up about 0.2 percent to $1.3340, ticking closer to a five-month high of $1.3441 struck on Wednesday.

It fell briefly on mounting worries over Ireland, but support at around $1.3280 proved solid.

The euro fell on Thursday after data showed Ireland's economy shrank 1.2 percent in the second quarter, stoking worries that Ireland, which has been praised by analysts for its efforts to slash fiscal deficits, could go down the path of Greece.

Uncertainty over the cost of propping up Ireland's troubled banks is raising concerns about whether it can achieve fiscal belt-tightening without damaging growth.

The euro traded at 112.90 yen, up 0.5 percent on the day and not far from a six-week high of 113.53 yen hit on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar, seen as a barometer of investors' risk appetite, also rose 0.2 percent to $0.9510 even as regional share prices sagged. ($1=84.37 Yen) (Additional reporting by Charlotte Cooper and Reuters FX analysts Krishna Kumar in Sydney and Rick Lloyd in Singapore; Editing by Michael Watson)

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