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FOREX-Dollar awaits more data, yen up as corporates active

Published 10/30/2009, 03:50 AM
Updated 10/30/2009, 03:51 AM

* Dollar/yen slips as Japanese companies sell at month-end

* Yen crosses also fall; investment trust flows watched

* Eyes on more U.S. data later in the day

By Satomi Noguchi

TOKYO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The dollar drifted sideways against the euro on Friday as investors awaited more U.S. data later in the day while the yen rose, helped by month-end demand from Japanese companies.

Analysts said month-end dollar selling for yen had been weighing on the U.S. currency in Asian trading, while yen crosses retraced some of their rebound of the previous day as short-term short-covering faded.

Analysts also said the market was waiting to see if yen selling would materialise from Japanese investment trusts, with a new Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management fund investing in sovereign and corporate bonds in emerging markets drawing 189.6 billion yen ($2.1 billion) from Japanese retail investors.

It was the year's biggest first-day launch for a single series of Japanese mutual bonds, or toushins.

The market watches Japanese mutual fund flows carefully because of their dampening effect on the yen but as the Brazilian real drew the highest demand, analysts said outflows may not materialise until later in the day as real trading in Asian time was not very liquid.

"Dollar/yen is looking very heavy on top after seeing Japanese exporters selling the dollar," said a senior trader at Japanese brokerage firm.

"But bids are also strong with some expectations for yen-selling flows linked to toushin launches towards the London fixing, giving little direction at the moment."

The dollar fell 0.5 percent to 90.98 yen and the euro shed 0.5 percent to 134.90 yen.

"Levels above 90 (on dollar/yen) look attractive for corporates, especially those who have been revising down their rates of exchange for this year, they want to sell as high as possible," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

The higher-yielding Australian dollar fell 0.9 percent to 83.01 yen and the New Zealand dollar dropped 1 percent to 66.35 yen. They were also weaker on the day against the dollar.

Both have been popular buys against the yen this year but have had a volatile week, hit by profit-taking and then a rebound on Wednesday and Thursday, when their trading volumes surged to their highest levels this month on Reuters Matching.

The Bank of Japan began withdrawing some of its special credit measures from financial markets, ending buying of commercial paper and corporate bonds in December but then also extending a key loan scheme.

Analysts said the changes, which were mostly expected, did not affect the yen. It also forecast three years of deflation, effectively pledging to keep interest rates near zero at least until 2011.

Investors will closely watch Friday's U.S. data including the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for October and the Institute of Supply Management Chicago's October index for manufacturing activity.

Traders also said the biggest influence on the currency market would be month-end flows, with some hefty moves in global stock markets and portfolio rebalancing flows expected.

The dollar traded below the 76 mark against a basket of currencies and not far from a 14-month low of 74.94 struck on on Oct. 21.

The euro was steady on the day at $1.4826 after jumping over 0.8 percent the previous day. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney and Charlotte Cooper in Tokyo; Editing by Michael Watson)

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