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FOREX-Dollar, yen slide after BofA payback; ECB awaited

Published 12/02/2009, 09:46 PM
Updated 12/02/2009, 09:51 PM
GC
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* BofA plans to repay $45 bln of TARP aid

* Aussie dips after data adds little to RBA outlook

* But record gold supports Australian dollar

* Euro higher, but players wary of ECB meeting

By Satomi Noguchi

TOKYO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The yen and the dollar fell on Thursday after Bank of America said it would repay $45 billion of taxpayer bailout funds, boosting investor confidence and trimming safety bids in those currencies.

Bank of America is expected to repay its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds over the next few days, with observers saying this could be the first in a wave of such payments by major U.S. banks that have yet to give back the government bailout money.

Traders said the yen faced another wave of selling on the BoA move after having been sold the previous day on growing investor speculation that Japan may take more quantitative easing steps to get the economy out of deflation and as prospects of currency intervention loomed large.

The Australian dollar rose supported by record gold prices, but gains were capped by retail sales for October which matched expectations for a moderate increase.

The data added little to the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that the Reserve Bank of Australia has just lifted its cash rate and that its next policy meeting is not until February, prompting some investors to sell the Aussie and book profits.

Analysts at Barclays Capital said market appetite for risk continued to recover with several positive developments including the BofA move.

"If the recovery in risk-correlated assets manages to get through the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release relatively unscathed, we think that there is a potential for a squeeze higher in risk-correlated currencies into year-end," they said in a note to clients.

The yen extended its fall as far as 87.89 per dollar, with stop-loss sell orders triggered around 87.50. It lost 0.9 percent in the previous session--its largest daily loss versus the greenback in six weeks.

That was a far cry from last week when the yen surged to a 14-year high of 84.82 per dollar on trading platform EBS.

It has lost ground steadily since then and traders now expect support for the yen at the 88 per dollar mark.

"Suddenly the market does not want to touch yen," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital.

"As the focus in of the rest of the world continues to be on potential exit strategies, headlines about a stimulus package, liquidity provisions from the Bank of Japan and a wall of words from concerned Japanese officials proliferate."

Talk of intervention got a boost after Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said on Wednesday the yen's recent rise could not be left alone..

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano later downplayed Hatoyama's remarks, but that did not deter investors from selling the yen.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) signalled on Wednesday it was open to more measures to support the economy after its emergency meeting the previous day offered short-term funding and disappointed markets. That has fanned expectations that it may take more quantitative easing steps.

In general, quantitative easing undermines a currency's value because it expands money supply to levels that could potentially lead to higher inflation.

ECB AWAITED

The euro rose 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.5081 ahead of a key European Central Bank (ECB) meeting later in the session.

The single currency extended gains on the yen, rising to as high as 132.54 yen on EBS, before trading at 132.44 yen, up 0.7 percent from late New York trade.

The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged but may signal its first step towards unwinding some of the emergency measures taken last year to prop up the economy. For scenarios story, see.

Still, with recent debt woes in Dubai lurking in the background, there were expectations that the ECB could delay its plans to withdraw some of its liquidity operations. Any such move could weigh on the euro.

The Aussie was up 0.3 percent to $0.9282, but off earlier highs near $0.9300. It rose 0.7 percent to 81.50 yen. (Additional reporting By Anirban Nag; Editing by Joseph Radford) ((satomi.noguchi@thomsonreuters.com; +81-3-6441-1875; Reuters Messaging; satomi.noguchi.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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