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FOREX-Dollar, yen gain as risk appetite pulls back

Published 11/19/2009, 12:28 PM
Updated 11/19/2009, 12:30 PM
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* Stocks, commodities decline, hitting risk appetite

* Yen gains broadly, Australian, New Zealand dollars fall

* Investors wary rally in risky assets excessive (Updates prices, adds comment)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The dollar and yen rose on Thursday as a pullback in risk appetite amid declines in equity and commodity markets revived safe-haven demand for the U.S. and Japanese currencies.

The yen rallied broadly, hitting its highest level against the euro in more than two weeks, while the higher-yielding, commodity-linked Australian and New Zealand dollars tumbled.

Analysts said investors were turning cautious after recent economic data has not been as rosy as forecast, heightening worries the sharp rally in risky assets in the past months may have been overdone.

"It's probably a combination of the notion that the global economic data has been going through somewhat of a soft patch recently and the fact that the year-end is approaching," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

A senior economic advisor to the German government highlighted uncertainty about the global economy as he told Reuters Television Germany could face a double-dip recession in late 2010 or early 2011 as extra public spending is withdrawn.

In midday trading, the euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.4895. It remained within the range of a large, $1.48 to $1.51 "double no touch" options structure expiring on Friday.

The single euro zone currency also slid to a more than two-week low of 131.68 yen, according to Reuters data, as losses accelerated after breaking technical support at the 200-day moving average of around 132.00.

The dollar fell 0.5 percent to 88.93 yen after hitting a low of 88.64, the lowest level since Oct. 9, according to Reuters data.

"The decline in risk appetite has prompted some squaring of positions particularly in the yen, which was oversold against the majors," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York.

RISKY ASSETS PULL BACK

Major indexes on Wall Street fell sharply on weakness in the technology and health insurance sectors. Oil and gold prices both retreated.

Investors were also wary of talk from emerging market countries about capital controls to limit some of the hot money flows into their economies, with new steps announced by Brazil and South Korea.

The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, a measure of the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, rose 0.2 percent to 75.36. The index hit a 15-month low of 74.679 early this week.

Federal Reserve officials on Thursday downplayed the consequences of the falling U.S. dollar, underscoring that deflation is still a threat, especially with commercial real estate prices falling.

A survey on Thursday showed factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region grew in November for a fourth straight month, and faster than expected. It followed weaker-than-expected readings on U.S. housing starts and industrial production earlier this week.

"We're running out of gas as far as recovery momentum goes," said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York.

The Australian dollar fell to a two-week low and last traded 1.3 percent lower at US$0.9172. The New Zealand dollar lost 2.2 percent to US$0.7294.

Analysts said comments from the main opposition party leader in New Zealand that it would seek to change a policy that sets the central bank's main role as controlling inflation through interest rates added to the currency's fall.

(Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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