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FOREX-Dollar, yen gain as economic optimism wanes

Published 04/15/2009, 02:19 AM
BARC
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* Dollar, yen supported with global optimism tempered

* Stocks decline, appetite for risk is dented

By Shinichi Saoshiro

TOKYO, April 15 (Reuters) - The yen and the dollar gained on Wednesday as optimism about a global economic recovery ebbed following weaker-than-expected U.S. economic figures, which cooled demand for other currencies.

The dollar and yen also drew support from falls in Asian stocks, which tracked Wall Street lower. U.S. stock market benchmarks slid on Tuesday after news that U.S. retail sales fell 1.1 percent in March against economists' forecast for a 0.3 percent rise.

"The retail sales data was a step towards ending recent economic optimism and the related rally in stocks," said Toru Umemoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays Capital in Japan.

Since early February the yen has declined against such currencies as the Australian and New Zealand dollars as investor confidence has picked up, and low interest rates have seen market participants seek currencies with higher rates and expectations of a faster economic recovery.

One trader said Wednesday's gain in the yen came as Japanese importer demand for the dollar petered out and funds outside Japan that had bet on a further yen fall had been forced to buy it back, sending it higher across the board.

The dollar lost 0.5 percent to 98.47 yen after falling as low as 98.15 yen on trading platform EBS. Last week it touched its highest in six months at 101.45 yen.

The euro dropped briefly blow 130 yen before rebounding to 130.45 yen, down 0.6 percent on the day. It retreated from a six-month high of 137.42 yen struck earlier this month. The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.3247.

Traders said the euro also faced selling pressure from market talk that Japanese investors may repatriate funds invested in euro zone government bonds, as uncertainty about the global economic outlook makes them more conservative.

Japanese life insurers, who hold about $1.5 trillion in assets, have told Reuters in recent interviews they are likely to favour yen bonds over foreign assets in the financial year that started on April 1.

Redemption of 45 billion euros ($59.6 billion) of bonds and coupon payments are expected this week.

The Australian dollar fell 0.5 percent to $0.7175 and dropped 0.6 percent to 70.62 yen after hitting a six-month high of 73.49 yen the previous day.

The Aussie climbed to six-month highs against the dollar and yen earlier in the week partly on optimism that a rebound in the Chinese economy would drive demand for commodities. China releases first-quarter GDP figures on Thursday.

Tokyo's Nikkei average lost 1.1 percent on Wednesday. U.S. stock futures shed 0.7 percent, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street later in the day.

Following Tuesday's weaker-than-forecast retail sales numbers the market is bracing for U.S. data later in the day including March consumer prices and industrial production.

While sombre economic figures could give fresh support to the dollar and yen in the short term, analysts said there were concerns the dollar could be harmed by the Federal Reserve's buying of government bonds to keep long-term interest rates down.

"Increased money supply has been one of the major factors weighing on the dollar against the yen," said Umemoto at Barclays Capital.

"Concerns over the dollar are expected to mount as fiscal conditions in the United States deteriorate."

Market watchers are also eyeing U.S. net foreign securities purchases data for February due for release later in the day. After a net outflow of $43 billion in January, the focus is on whether the outflow has been reversed or at least curbed. ($1=.7549 Euro) (Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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