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FOREX-Dollar, yen fall vs euro; Aussie up before RBA

Published 11/02/2009, 04:13 AM
Updated 11/02/2009, 04:15 AM

* Dollar, yen fall vs euro, higher-yielding currencies

* Sentiment buoyed by China data; AUD up as rate hike seen

* Yen cuts earlier gains; traders cited low trade in ZAR/JPY

* Solid euro zone manufacturing survey also lifts euro

(Updates prices; changes byline, dateline; previous TOKYO)

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar and the yen fell against the euro and higher-yielding currencies on Monday as solid Chinese data and expectations of a rate hike in Australia buoyed sentiment towards perceived riskier currencies.

The Australian dollar gained broadly before the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on Tuesday, though investors were cautious ahead of a busy week, with policy decisions also due in the United State, the euro zone and the UK, analysts said.

HSBC's China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October rose to an 18-month high of 55.4 from 55.0 in September, underscoring the strength of the manufacturing sector.

This encouraged investors to resume selling the dollar and the yen -- which typically rise during times of heightened risk aversion.

The euro was also lifted by a key survey confirming that the euro zone manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in 17 months during October as new orders reached a level not seen in over two years

The yen reversed a broad advance in early Asian trade, when it touched its highest levels in several weeks. Traders cited an exceptionally low trade in forex margin deals on the South African rand against the yen.

"The above-forecast Chinese PMI data was a positive surprise that lifted higher-yielding currencies in particular," said Michael Klawitter at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

He added that with so many key central bank decisions ahead, as well as U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday, market players were likely to be cautious of extending last week's sharp moves, which broadly benefited the dollar.

Sentiment remained vulnerable after earlier news that CIT Group had filed for bankruptcy.

By 0906 GMT, the euro traded up 0.4 percent at $1.4771, recovering some of its losses made on Friday when it fell more than 0.8 percent.

The euro rose 0.5 percent against the yen to 133.28 yen while the dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 90.21 yen.

The yen had risen as high as 89.18 yen per dollar on trading platform EBS in early Asian trade, with traders saying the low trade in South African rand against the yen had a knock-on effect on all yen pairs.

The rand is one of the high-yielding currencies into which Japanese retail investors have been shifting funds.

Japanese margin forex traders had roughly tripled their net long positions in rand/yen over the past couple of weeks to 40,356 contracts as of Friday.

See http://www.tfx.co.jp/mkinfo/document/fx_sellbuy.xls

The Australian dollar rose 0.8 percent against the dollar to $0.9062 and by well over 1 percent against the yen to 81.78 yen, having earlier fallen to about 79.45 yen.

Australia upgraded its economic and fiscal outlook on Monday, after the domestic economy proved more resilient than had been expected, underlining expectations for a rate rise this week.

"Whilst another 25 basis point increase (from the RBA) is already priced in to the Australian dollar, as long as the rhetoric from the Bank remains hawkish, still signalling more hikes to come ... the currency should remain well supported," Calyon analysts said in a note to clients.

The Federal Reserve's rate setting committee, which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, is expected to keep rates unchanged but there is speculation it may change its wording.

Decisions follow on Thursday in the euro zone and the UK, where the focus will be on whether the Bank of England will increase its asset-purchase programme to give the economy a boost.

(Additional reporting by Satomi Noguchi in Tokyo, editing by Nigel Stephenson)

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