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FOREX-Dollar's comeback flags but still near key levels

Published 11/10/2010, 11:36 PM
Updated 11/10/2010, 11:40 PM

* Dollar short-covering run stalls for now

* Aussie slips after jobs data but rapidly recovers

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The dollar lost steam on Thursday after four days of gains but remained close to significant barriers which if broken could see its short-covering rebound stretch higher against the likes of the yen and euro.

The Australian dollar dipped after Australia's unemployment rate rose in October but it quickly pulled back above parity, while the euro, pressured all week as euro zone debt worries combine with long position unwinding, hovered near $1.3800.

In Seoul G20 leaders were gathering to discuss currencies and global economic imbalances. But negotiators wrangled over the wording of a communique expected on Friday, and the statement was not expected to venture much beyond a finance ministers' agreement last month.

After rising almost to its September pre-intervention low of 82.87 yen on Wednesday, the dollar was holding above 82.00 yen, with a re-test of the 82.87 barrier not ruled out. But there was talk of dollar sell orders from Japanese exporters above 82.50 yen, with more near-term resistance at 83 yen.

"Maybe 82 and 83 will be difficult for dollar/yen but at the same time exporters' dollar orders will be absorbed by the market and they will decrease," said Osamu Takashima, chief FX strategist for Citibank Japan.

"When the orders decrease that will be positive for the dollar in the medium term, over one or two months."

UBS analysts also said in a note that long-yen speculative positioning remained high, increasing the risk of position unwinding into the year end, while a rise in U.S.-Japan yield differentials could also help.

The dollar has pulled up from a 15-year low of 80.21 yen set at the start of the month, just before the Federal Reserve's long-anticipated decision to resume quantitative easing, and held off revisiting its 1995 record low of 79.75 yen.

On the charts, a break above the Sept. 15 low, set just before Japanese authorities intervened to sell yen, would open the way for a move up to the dollar's 2009 low of 84.82 yen. It was down 0.1 percent on the day at 82.18 yen.

The Veterans Day holiday in the United States, where some markets will be shut, was helping keep the market subdued.

CHINA INFLATION

Chinese inflation sped to a 25-month high in October and bank lending blew past expectations, pointing to the likelihood of more policy tightening.

But the market took the data calmly after speculation of a higher CPI reading, and the Australian dollar, which can be sensitive to the pace of Chinese growth due to demand for Australian resources, rose 0.2 percent to $1.0060, while the New Zealand dollar climbed 0.7 percent to $0.7872.

The Aussie had briefly dipped below parity earlier in the session after data showed Australia's jobless rate jumped as the buoyant economy drew more people into the workforce -- a trend that could lessen the need for higher interest rates.

The dollar has rallied more than 3 percent against a basket of major currencies in the past four sessions, breaking above 78.0 for the first time in two weeks on Wednesday.

However, it stopped short of October's highs at 78.273 and 78.364, resistance to beat if its correction is to extend much higher. It was last at 77.548, down 0.1 percent.

The euro, which hit a five-week trough of $1.3670 on Wednesday, rose 0.1 percent to 1.3800. It has corrected sharply from a 10-month high above $1.4280 set a week ago.

Chartwise it needs to stay above the $1.3670 trough to avoid a possible move down to $1.3363-1.3333. $1.3363 is the 38.2 percent retracement of its rally from June to November.

It remains vulnerable to persistent worries about the fiscal health of peripheral euro zone sovereigns and their ability to fund themselves in markets.

Ireland, the current hot spot, is battling to prove it does not need a Greek-style rescue to help it reduce the worst budget deficit in Europe. The country's central bank governor conceded on Wednesday a huge bank recapitalisation programme had failed to reassure investors. (Editing by Joseph Radford) (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney, Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo and Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney)

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