FOREX-Dlr/yen slips towards 15-yr low, Aussie jumps

Published 09/09/2010, 01:05 AM

(Corrects paragraph 3 to long on the dollar, not yen, and paragraph 4 to bought the dollar, not the yen. Corrects table at the bottom of story to update U.S. closing values.)

* Dollar/yen near 15-year low, seen vulnerable

* Aussie hits 4-month high on solid jobs data

* Threat of immediate Japan intervention seen tapering off

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped towards a 15-year low against the yen on Thursday as traders bet that Japanese authorities are not yet ready to intervene, while the Australian dollar hit a four-month high against the U.S. dollar on solid Australian jobs data.

The rise in the Aussie did not give its usual fillip to the U.S. dollar against the yen, via trade in the crosses, reinforcing bearish views on dollar/yen.

Traders said there had been speculation that Japanese intervention might be imminent after talk swirled in the market late on Wednesday that Japanese authorities had checked rates, prompting short-term players to go long on the dollar.

But wariness about intervention is tapering off as nothing has happened up to now, and those who bought the dollar might be unwinding their positions, traders said.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Thursday that the ministry was conducting simulations on forex intervention, in a possible reference to the rate checks, but the yen hardly budged as the perception remains that Japan is unlikely to intervene until the dollar falls near 80 yen.

The dollar slipped 0.1 percent on the day to 83.78 yen, closing in on a 15-year low of 83.34 yen struck on the EBS platform on Wednesday.

WARINESS ABOUT INTERVENTION

Wariness about intervention helped to push the dollar up briefly in early trade but it failed to sustain a rise above 84 yen, its five-day moving average.

"The U.S. dollar really seems under pressure. There's fear of a 'Japanisation' of the U.S. economy, where growth would stagnate and interest rates fall," said Koichi Yoshikawa, head of FX trading at BNP Paribas.

Shrinking yield gaps between the yen and the dollar have been a major driver behind the dollar's fall versus the yen since May.

U.S. bond yields fell on Wednesday even as Wall Street shares rose on positive news from Europe, showing that many investors are still not ready to embrace risk and putting pressure on the dollar.

Japanese government data indicated that Japanese investors bought a net 731 billion yen ($8.72 billion) of foreign bonds last week, showing no signs of repatriation by Japanese investors ahead of their half-year book-closing on Sept. 30.

Some market players are now looking to the Japanese ruling party's leadership vote next Tuesday, with Prime Minister Naoto Kan holding only a slim lead over rival Ichiro Ozawa, seen by markets as likely to pursue more reflationist policies.

If Ozawa wins the vote and becomes prime minister, some market players have said there is likely to be a knee-jerk fall in the yen.

The greenback seems to have some support at the lower end of its Bollinger Band around 83.35, said Teppei Ino, analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, noting that the dollar rebounded at that level on Wednesday.

Many traders think it is only a matter of time, however, before the dollar falls below that level.

The dollar index has repeatedly failed to break above its 55-day moving average, making the case for more weakness in the currency.

DIVERGENCE?

The Australian dollar jumped to a four-month high of $0.9237 after strong Australian jobs data, breaking above the $0.92 resistance it had been struggling with.

The data boosted expectations that Australia will raise rates in the future, with the OIS pricing in one more rate hike within a year.

The Australian currency also hit a record high against the euro of A$1.3795 per euro.

The Canadian dollar also kept Wednesday's hefty gains following a rate hike by the Canadian central bank. It stood at C$1.0380 per U.S. dollar.

"The direction of monetary policy is completely the opposite between the United States and countries like Australia and Canada. So currencies like the Aussie and the Canadian dollar will tend to be favoured," said BNP Paribas' Yoshikawa.

The euro stood at $1.2730, after rising about 0.3 percent on Wednesday as Portugal raised 1.04 billion euros, helping to soothe fears about government funding in Europe. Poland's sale of five-year bonds also saw solid demand.

Later on Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting, where it is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.5 percent and to refrain from increasing its asset purchase programme.

The pound traded at $1.5460, off a 1-½ month low of $1.5296 hit on Tuesday. ($1=83.86 Yen) (Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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