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FOREX-Dlr steadies after Geithner, kiwi surges on rate view

Published 03/26/2009, 07:58 AM
Updated 03/26/2009, 08:08 AM

* Dollar settles after volatile moves on Geithner remarks

* NZ dollar jumps vs dollar, yen as rates seen near bottom

* Geithner says dollar to remain world's reserve currency

(Adds quotes, updates prices)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed against major currencies on Thursday after wild swings the previous day on U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's comments on reserve currencies.

New Zealand's dollar gained roughly 2 percent against the U.S. dollar and yen, lifting other yen crosses, as investors searching for yield took the view that interest rates there were at or very near the bottom.

The U.S. dollar recovered from lows hit after Geithner said he was open to expanding the use of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).

His comments were initially interpreted as an endorsement of China's proposal this week to eventually replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency with SDRs.

That pushed the dollar lower but it then regained ground after he said the dollar would keep its status as the top reserve currency for a long time.

Analysts said the comments had, by accident or design, opened a debate on how the dollar will cope with massive fiscal stimulus pumping into the U.S. economy.

"The magnitude of fiscal spending in the U.S. is a significant issue for the dollar and its outlook. The Chinese authorities, amongst others, are concerned about that given the holdings they have in dollar-denominated reserves," said Phyllis Papadavid, currency strategist at SG in London.

"This type of dynamic may not make it to the official statement, but it is likely to form a good part of the bilateral talks at the G20," she added.

By 1130 GMT, the dollar was up 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies at 83.790. The euro was flat at $1.3575. A broadly sliding yen pushed the dollar up 0.7 percent to 98.31 yen, while the euro rose 0.8 percent to 133.60 yen

The yen has slid against high-yielding currencies in the past few weeks as gains in global stock markets have pointed to an improvement in investors' risk appetite.

KIWI SURGES

The kiwi surged to its highest in more than two months at $0.5803 and touched around more than four-month peak of 56.95 yen, according to Reuters data, as New Zealand government debt yields surged in a sign investors were reining in expectations for lower rates.

New Zealand's cash rate stands at 3 percent and the central bank has signalled it does not expect to reduce rates much further.

But some analysts were sceptical on the rate outlook.

"Since the RBNZ took rates down to 3 percent, markets have priced out more easing. We view this as misplaced, with Q4 GDP due tonight set to show a large -1.1 percent Q/Q fall, intensifying New Zealand's plight," ING said in a note to clients.

The Australian dollar was down around 1.3 percent at 1.2151 , hovering near a 10-week low and adding to broad strength in the kiwi.

(Reporting by Veronica Brown; Editing by Ron Askew)

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