FOREX-Dlr edges up; some in market wary on Fed QE size

Published 10/12/2010, 04:27 AM
Updated 10/12/2010, 04:28 AM

* Euro down 0.3 percent at $1.3830

* Dollar below 82 yen, near 15-year lows

* Weak stocks drive down yen crosses

* U.S. FOMC minutes awaited for insight into easing debate

By Tamawa Desai

LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The dollar held its ground against the euro and a basket of currencies on Tuesday on a short-covering bounce, but gave way against the yen to hover near 15-year lows.

The speculative part of the market has become short dollars as it factors in more quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve in November.

Market players say this means people may be cautious about aggressively selling the greenback from here and it could bounce if U.S. policymakers sound less dovish than expected.

Minutes from the Fed's meeting on Sept. 21, when it said it stood ready to provide more support for the economy and expressed concern about low inflation, are due at 1800 GMT and will be scrutinised for more clues on policymakers' thinking.

"The market is moving to pare back expectations of QE by the Fed," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, adding other higher-yielding assets such as stocks and commodities were also seeing a correction.

"The Fed minutes will be crucial as we could learn more about the size of potential asset purchases."

A Reuters poll of U.S. primary dealers conducted last week forecast the projected size of the quantitative easing would range between $500 billion to $1.5 trillion.

However, expectations in some quarters are being pared back.

"Recent commentary by (St Louis Fed President James) Bullard, as well as by the generally dovish (Fed vice chair Janet) Yellen suggests that the Fed may not go to extremes when announcing its next policy steps on 3rd November," BNP Paribas said in a note to clients.

By 0733 GMT, the euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3830, after dipping to a one-week low of $1.3808 and well below an eight month high of $1.4030 hit last week.

Traders said stop-loss sales were seen below $1.3810, which if triggered could, they say, expose a move towards a cluster of bids at $1.3760/80. Large options strike interest was also highlighted at $1.3800 for the New York cut at 1400 GMT.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of currencies to 77.637, coming off from a nine-month low of 76.906 hit last week.

YEN NEAR HIGHS

But the going was heavy against the yen, with the Japanese currency gaining ground on the crosses as stock prices fell.

The euro fell 0.4 percent to 113.38 yen, while the Australian dollar dropped 0.5 percent to 80.29 yen.

The dollar dropped 0.2 percent to 81.93 yen, not far from a 15-year low of 81.37 struck on Monday.

The pair found support on buying by Japanese importers and the prospect of yen-selling intervention by Japanese authorities.

"Investors, or market participants, are gradually finding it more difficult to make extra short positions in the U.S. dollar," said Yunosuke Ikeda, senior currency strategist at Nomura Securities.

"So if you see any kind of positive data or less pessimistic data, or less dovish statements from Fed officials then there is a potential for reversal of the dollar value trajectory."

But most market players expect pressure to remain on the dollar/yen pair, with a test of 80 yen and the record trough of 79.75 yen still in sight.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda on Tuesday reiterated Tokyo would take decisive steps against excessive currency moves, including intervention, after his Group of Seven counterparts made no overt criticism of the move at a meeting in Washington at the weekend.

(Additional reporting by Charlotte Cooper in Tokyo)

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