FOREX-Debt worries dent euro before Eurogroup meeting

Published 12/06/2010, 08:12 AM
Updated 12/06/2010, 08:16 AM

* Euro down, wins little respite from LCH.Clearnet move

* Euro zone finance ministers meet later on Monday

* Market unperturbed by Bernanke saying may buy more assets

(Adds quote, details, updates prices)

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The euro fell on Monday on worries about euro zone peripheral government debt, ahead of a meeting of finance ministers who are under pressure to boost the size of a rescue fund to stop a debt crisis spreading.

IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn will present a report, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, to euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels, saying more action is needed from member states. [ID:nLDE6B40CZ]

However, analysts said there were concerns about differences of opinion among officials.

This encouraged renewed selling of the euro after a rebound late last week took it back above $1.34, with traders citing selling by real money accounts and sovereign names.

The dollar also bounced on a bout of short covering as investors shrugged off comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that quantitative easing could be bigger than estimated. [ID:nN05271909]

"The headlines over the weekend still spoke of a lack of unity in thinking," said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon. "It doesn't do a great deal to encourage investor confidence if there are very public differences of opinion".

Germany denied on Saturday a British newspaper report that Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Berlin might leave the euro during a heated exchange at a summit of European Union leaders at the end of October. [ID:nLDE6B3044]

The euro was down 0.9 percent at $1.3299, having hit a low of $1.3249, according to Reuters data, with stop-loss selling triggered on a break below $1.3270. Traders reported an options expiry on Monday at $1.3250.

The euro briefly rose to $1.3380 after European clearing house LCH.Clearnet reduced the margin requirement on Irish government bonds to 30 percent from 45 percent of net positions of its margin rate. [ID:nLDE6B10EI]

But peripheral bond yields -- such as Spain's and Portugal's -- nudged higher after being kept in check last week by European Central Bank bond buying [GVD/EUR] and the euro soon moved back, dropping below its 100-day moving average at $1.3333.

Euro/dollar risk reversals showed the premium demanded to buy euro puts over calls rising again as the recovery in the spot euro above $1.34 looked to have run its course. The 25-delta 1-month risk reversal traded above 2.0 on Monday after falling to around 1.85 on Friday.

Euro/dollar "has scope to move down further, with political developments and commitment from euro zone policymakers likely to be the focus," said Paul Mackel, director of currency strategy at HSBC.

The IMF report will say the euro zone should increase the size of its 750 billion euro rescue fund and the European Central Bank should boost bond buying markedly. [ID:nLDE6B40CZ]

BERNANKE AND QE2

With the euro resuming its decline, the dollar index <.DXY> was up 0.5 percent at 79.741, close to its 100-day moving average of 80.04.

Analysts and traders said Bernanke's comments on QE were not too bearish given Friday's below-forecast jobs data. [ID:nN02238002]

"Most of the other U.S. data we've seen has only been strong, and is likely to get the market speculating in the other direction," said Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas.

Latest data from the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators trimmed bets against the U.S. dollar for a fourth straight week. [IMM/FX].

The dollar was up 0.3 percent to 82.85 yen , climbing off Friday's three-week low of 82.52 yen and keeping well above the Ichimoku 'cloud' bottom around 81.70 yen.

(Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer and Anna Yukhananov; editing by Nigel Stephenson)

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