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FOREX-Aussie, others retreat from highs as caution sets in

Published 05/04/2009, 11:08 PM
Updated 05/04/2009, 11:16 PM
BNPP
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* Aussie, euro retreat from recent highs vs dollar, yen

* Profit-taking sets in after steep gains

* Some caution ahead U.S. banks' stress tests

* Tokyo markets on holiday, trade lighter than usual

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, May 5 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar, the euro and sterling retreated from recent highs against the dollar and yen on Tuesday as investors pocketed profits from their gains, helped by caution ahead of U.S. banks' stress test results.

The Australian dollar hovered below its latest seven-month peak against the greenback set in early trade as the market awaited a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was forecast to keep its cash rate at 3.0 percent.

News that about 10 U.S. banks being stress tested were likely to need more capital injected a note of caution into a market made less liquid than usual by a three-day holiday in Tokyo.

U.S. regulators have deemed about 10 of 19 banks will need more capital, according to a source familiar with the talks. Results of the tests are expected on Thursday.

"We did see a big move overnight so the market is thinking people are quite long so we'll take away some profits -- so that's one factor driving the adjustment," said Sharada Selvanathan, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Hong Kong.

But she said some in the market were still concerned about the results of the stress tests and how banks would get capital.

"The market is very split. We do see a lot of positive sentiment but those who are bears are using the big moves to unwind positions and to sell at these levels."

The Australian dollar edged down 0.1 percent on the day to $0.7404 after hitting a seven-month high of $0.7427 in early trade and gaining more than 1 percent on Monday.

It shed 0.2 percent to 73.08 yen, down from Monday's seven-month peak of 73.57 yen.

The multi-month peaks have come as optimism spreads that the deepest economic slump in decades may have bottomed out.

That improving sentiment has fuelled gains in stock markets and currencies expected to benefit the fastest from a recovery, with better news on manufacturing in Europe, China and India and positive signs on U.S. home sales and construction on Monday fuelling those hopes.

AUSTRALIA FOCUS

The euro held steady on the day at $1.3400 after earlier brushing its highest in a month at $1.3439 on trading platform EBS as it tried to extend a 1 percent jump on Monday.

It was 0.1 percent down at 132.27 yen, below a three-week high of 132.87 set on Monday.

The pound had looked set for a test of a potential four-month high against the dollar but retreated 0.2 percent from late U.S. trading levels to $1.5017 and shed 0.3 percent on the yen.

The dollar itself was steady at 98.73 yen, down from a two-week high at 99.57 on Monday.

The Aussie is also in focus ahead of an interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at 0430 GMT.

The market is betting the central bank will keep rates steady at 3.0 percent. Although the cash rate is at a record low, it is amongst the highest in the developed world, making Australian assets attractive to yield-hungry investors.

There is an outside chance the RBA might pledge to keep rates low for an extended period as some other central banks have.

Some analysts, though, believe the global green shoots theory could see the RBA refrain from making such a commitment.

"If the economic embers are starting to reignite, we doubt that a generally hawkish RBA central governor will want to overly stoke them, particularly when he is on the record as stating that Australia is better placed to deal with the current recession than most other nations," said Josh Williamson, analyst at Citi. (Additional report by Anirban Nag in Sydney; Editing by Jan Dahinten)

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