FOREX-Anglo Irish downgrade hurts euro, dlr/yen flat

Published 09/27/2010, 07:50 AM
Updated 09/27/2010, 07:52 AM

* Euro slips, hurt by profit taking and downgrade

* Moody's cuts Anglo Irish Bank ratings

* CFTC data shows shift to euro longs

* Dollar holds above 84 yen

(Adds quote, updates prices)

By Tamawa Desai

LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The euro lost ground against the dollar on Monday after ratings firm Moody's cut Anglo Irish Bank's lower-grade debt and kept it on review for a downgrade, highlighting concerns over the euro zone banking sector.

The euro hit a session low of $1.3426 , and was down nearly 0.1 percent on the day at $1.3477 by 1133 GMT, off a five-month high of $1.3496 hit on Friday. Traders said stop losses were lined up below $1.3425.

Moody's cut the nationalised bank's senior unsecured debt by three notches to Baa3 -- just one notch above junk status -- and its subordinated debt by six notches to Caa1. [ID:nLDE68Q15A]

"The Moody's downgrade was moderately significant as it takes them ahead of others ... to one notch above junk, and it still remains under review," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"With the prospect of more easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve priced in, the focus may move back to Europe."

The single currency had edged lower versus the dollar on profit-taking after gaining some 4 cents since last week, and after failing to break a barrier at $1.3500, traders said.

The euro's next key level was $1.3510, a 50 percent retracement of its fall from above $1.51 last November to its June low below $1.19.

Still, investors will be cautious about pushing the euro too high before banks repay 225 billion euros in European Central Bank loans. The tenders are due to expire this week, with banks preparing to repay 12-, six- and three-month funds on Thursday.

If the results highlight more banking sector troubles, traders may turn cautious on the euro, though other analysts say a withdrawal of funds from the system will boost lending rates and provide support for the single currency.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators moved to a net long position in the euro for the first time this year. [IMM/FX]

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Graphic on latest FX positioning http://r.reuters.com/kus26k ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The dollar index <=USD><.DXY>, a measure of its performance against six major currencies, was down 0.1 percent at 79.31 after dropping to 79.25 on Friday, its lowest in almost eight months. It fell through the 61.8 percent retracement of its rally from November to June on Friday, a bearish signal.

DOLLAR STEADIES VS YEN

The dollar steadied against the yen above 84 yen as selling by Japanese exporters and institutional investors ahead of the fiscal half-year end was offset by wariness of more yen-selling intervention by Japan.

It held above a post-intervention low of 84.12 yen hit on Friday and more than a yen above the 15-year low of 82.87 hit shortly before Japanese authorities acted nearly two weeks ago to sell yen for the first time in six years.

"Dollar/yen will stay under pressure from the exporters ahead of the financial year end," said Tom Levinson, FX strategist at ING. "We expect lower U.S. yields to drive down dollar/yen and Japanese authorities will be forced to intervene. The intervention story is not over."

The dollar spiked briefly on Friday on rumours of further yen-selling action, but Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he was unaware of any new market intervention. [ID:nN24270952]. Money market data from the Bank of Japan also seemed to back the view that there was no intervention on Friday.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Monday the central bank would examine the impact of the yen's rise at its policy-setting meeting next week and was watching forex moves with great interest. [ID:nTKX007009].

Traders expect the dollar to remain on the back foot after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week signalled it could loosen monetary policy further to support a sluggish economy.

(Graphics by Scott Barber)

(Additional reporting by Anirban Nag)

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