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UPDATE 1-Russia GDP growth slows to 1.6 pct y/y in Nov-Ifax

Published 12/22/2008, 06:50 AM
Updated 12/22/2008, 06:55 AM

(Adds trade balance)

MOSCOW, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Russia's growth slowed to just 1.6 percent year-on-year last month from October's 5.9, Interfax news agency reported on Monday, in further evidence that the economy could be heading towards recession.

That would be the slowest pace of growth in at least three years, according to Reuters data. Interfax quoted an unnamed source for its information.

Separately, Interfax also reported that Russia's trade surplus shrank to $7.1 billion in November from $11.9 billion the previous month. Imports were flat year-on-year, while exports slumped by 27 percent, it said.

Depending on decimal places, that would be the smallest surplus since at least January 2005, when it was $7.14 billion.

Russia, which enjoyed annual growth of around 7 percent in the last five years, has seen a sharp turnaround in its fortunes due to falling oil prices, the global financial crisis and broad capital flight from emerging markets.

For the first 11 months of the year, the economy has grown 6.5 percent, Interfax reported. That compares to official forecasts for full-year expansion of 6.0 percent.

The data suggests that Russia's economy has not yet entered a recession, but the figures do not bode well for the 2009 outlook.

Official GDP data from the Economy Ministry was due for release later in the week, while the central bank was expected to publish November trade figures in early January. (Reporting by Toni Vorobyova; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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