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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: September 24 - 28

Published 09/23/2012, 09:58 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended the week little changed against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as concerns over the outlook for global growth overshadowed hopes that Spain is moving closer to a bailout.

NZD/USD hit 0.8206 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since September 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8286 by close of trades on Friday, 0.08% lower on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8206, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.8352, the high of September 14 and a seven-month high.

Risk appetite was hit on Thursday after data from China showed that the country’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory for the eleventh consecutive month in September, underlining concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner after Australia.

In the euro zone, data showed that the bloc’s services sector contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009 in September, while the manufacturing sector also contracted, albeit at a slower than forecast pace.

But market sentiment was supported by speculation that Spain was moving closer to requesting a full-scale sovereign bailout.

Spain saw borrowing costs fall at an auction of government debt on Thursday, after the European Central Bank pledged earlier this month to buy unlimited amounts of short term government bonds from troubled euro zone members, but only after they request assistance.

However, expectations that Madrid will seek a bailout were dented after Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Friday that Spain did not need a sovereign bailout on top of the package already agreed for its banks because it was on the right path to regain the confidence of markets.

The greenback remained under pressure after the Federal Reserve announced earlier this month that it will buy USD40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month until the labor market improves and pledged to keep interest rates close to record lows until at least the middle of 2015.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to eye developments in Spain, while U.S. data on consumer sentiment and spending will be closely watched as investors attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, September 25

The U.S. is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation.

Wednesday, September 26

The U.S. is to publish official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of the health of the housing sector, as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 27

New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a weekly report on unemployment claims and revised data on second quarter economic growth. The country is also to produce industry data on pending homes sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, September 28

New Zealand is to publish official data on building consents, a leading indicator of future construction activity.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal income and spending, as well as data on personal consumption expenditures and an index of business activity in the Chicago area. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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