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UPDATE 2-Russian rouble steady, Putin backs FX policy shift

Published 01/23/2009, 08:13 AM
Updated 01/23/2009, 08:16 AM
DANSKE
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(Adds Putin spokesman, RTS data, background)

By Gleb Bryanski and Toni Vorobyova

MOSCOW, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Russia's rouble held firm on Friday after the central bank gambled on setting a floor 10-percent below current levels, in a bid to end a slide that has knocked a fifth off its value.

A series of mini-devaluations since November had shaved around 20 percent off the rouble's value against a euro-dollar basket and cost Russia $200 billion, or a third of its reserves, as it adjusted to weaker world oil prices and a slowing economy.

Keeping the slide gradual has avoided public panic in Russia, where people still remember a 70 percent collapse in the rouble in 1998. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has vowed there will be no repeat of 1998 and latest polls show his ratings remain high in a financial crisis stretching back to September.

At 1220 GMT the rouble traded at 37.25 to the basket, made of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros , little changed from the previous session and well within the 26 to 41 corridor outlined by the central bank late on Thursday.

Putin's spokesman said the prime minister approved of the policy shift. "The opinion expressed by (central bank chairman) Sergei Ignatyev is shared in the government," Dmitry Peskov said.

Russian banks and firms continued to switch their foreign currency holdings into roubles to make corporate tax payments and there were no signs of panic or discontent in the streets, bank offices or exchange booths.

"The painful period of massive reserve losses is over, at long last," said Rory Macfarquhar, analyst at Goldman Sachs, predicting that bond and credit markets, squashed by rouble devaluation, will also soon come to life.

CURRENCY INTERVENTIONS

The bank's announcement came after fresh data showed a record $30 billion fall in Russia's forex reserves, the world's third largest, prompting Fitch to warn Russia that a downgrade was imminent if the haemorrhage continues.

The central bank said it will continue currency interventions but will also try to steer the market through its interest rate policy as well as the amount of liquidity it provides to the banking sector.

Central bank Chairman Sergei Ignatyev declined to disclose the intervention mechanism in more detail. Earlier the central bank had "planned" currency purchases to replenish rainy day oil funds and ad-hoc interventions to steer the rouble.

Ignatyev conceded at a press-conference the central bank was under pressure to choose a different currency policy path but declined to say where the pressure was coming from. Both Putin and Medvedev have recently called their staff for unity.

Medvedev previously said the rouble's at 31-32 to the dollar is what the Russian people can painlessly tolerate. The central bank's new upper boundary sees the rouble at a 36 to the dollar based on the current dollar/euro exchange rate.

Putin has never put any numbers to the FX policy publicly.

FASTER MOVE

With Russian firms virtually cut off from international capital markets and holding most of their free cash in foreign currency, the central bank controls the liquidity situation.

It chose a temporary squeeze on rouble liquidity due to a corporate tax payment deadline to announce the end to the rouble devaluations. The liquidity squeeze boosted demand for roubles forcing the central bank to buy foreign currency.

The announcement also came after hours of intense market speculation the central bank would announce a free float of the rouble. Many analysts were disappointed it did not go that way.

"We would like to see a faster move towards a freely floating rouble ... the market will soon try to test the new upper boundary," said Lars Rasmussen from Danske Bank.

On Friday, the central bank re-introduced the daily limit on currency swap operations -- a tool for banks to use their foreign currency to obtain rouble liquidity -- setting it at 5 billion roubles.

Earlier this week when demand for roubles intensified the bank scrapped the limits on currency swaps and Friday's move suggested liquidity has now stabilised. Money market interest rates stood well above 20 percent.

Dealers said the trading session opened with forex purchases, which then abruptly stopped.

"I have a feeling the market does not yet understand what to do ... It is unlikely we will hit the 41 level in the near future," said currency dealer Alexander Karpov from Zenit Bank. (Additional reporting by Andrei Ostroukh; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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