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ANALYSIS-RIM forecast disappoints some, but still strong

Published 06/19/2009, 02:24 PM
Updated 06/19/2009, 02:48 PM
NOKIA
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*Outlook falls short of only the highest expectations

*Analysts see RIM growing stronger despite recession

*Revenue jumped 53 pct, profit up 33 pct in latest results (In U.S. dollars unless noted)

By Wojtek Dabrowski

TORONTO, June 19 (Reuters) - Research In Motion shows every sign of holding its own in the face of the recession and stepped-up competition for its BlackBerry smartphone, even though its latest earnings and revenue forecasts disappointed some investors.

Shares of the Waterloo, Ontario-based company fell almost 5 percent on Friday, a day after it issued an outlook for the current quarter that analysts still considered to be robust.

The drop by the stock belies a flurry of favorable comments by analysts about the company's chances of pushing forward with surprising growth during a difficult patch for the global economy.

It may partly reflect concern as Apple Inc began selling a new iPhone model on Friday, and has cut prices for older models of the smartphone, which competes with the BlackBerry Storm in the consumer market. Palm has also unveiled a potential new threat with its Pre smartphone.

Even so, RIM keeps marching ahead with additions to its subscriber base and has been successful in diversifying into the consumer market and becoming less dependent on corporate customers.

Duncan Stewart, an analyst at DSAM consulting in Toronto, calls RIM shares "a longer-term buy," pointing to the company's position as a market-leading smartphone maker among rivals such as Apple, Palm and Nokia .

Despite the competition, RIM said on Thursday it expects to add at least as many subscribers in the quarter ending Aug. 29 as it did in the quarter ended May 30.

That subscriber number -- 3.8 million -- is particularly impressive since it comes amid what has been billed as the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

"So far, in a period of incredible consumer weakness, their growth has continued to be very strong," Stewart said.

There is another area where RIM has made impressive gains of late: its stock price. Even though they fell 4.9 percent to $72.82 on Friday, the shares have more than doubled from their March low of $35.05.

This is a testament to the faith that investors hold in the company and its fortunes in the downturn.

"RIM's quarter and outlook were impressive in a challenging end-market environment," Broadpoint AmTech analyst Mark McKechnie wrote in a note to clients, adding: "Promotions by carriers in the 'smartphone war' should provide ongoing reminders of why to own RIM through the summer."

Still, it's hard not to recognize the concerns posed by the ongoing recession and the impact it is having on spending by companies and individuals alike.

RIM said 80 percent of its new users in the last quarter were "non-enterprise," which essentially means mainstream consumers, and not RIM's traditional market of professional and corporate buyers. Consumers now make up more than half of RIM's total subscriber base of nearly 29 million.

Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek, who has a "hold" rating on the shares, wrote to clients that "we are becoming increasingly concerned by the broader consumer electronics spending outlook".

For now, consumers continue to buy flashy smartphones including the popular and heavily promoted BlackBerry Curve, and new RIM models, such as the just-announced Tour, are set for release.

"In the end, we saw nothing that changes our very bullish long-term outlook on RIM, especially with a series of impressive new product launches on the horizon," Misek said of the results.

However, should consumer spending suddenly turn sour, RIM could be heavily exposed.

Large corporations are also being more careful with their spending, choosing to hold off on upgrades to the latest smartphone models. This has the potential to hurt RIM, but hasn't had a major impact thus far.

Despite these trends and the emergence of stiffer competition, it's difficult to argue with RIM's latest results, which disappointed only the most aggressive of expectations.

Ultimately, the outlook for RIM's stock depends to a large extent on whether such outsized expectations continue to prevail. The market will decide whether a company that posts 53 percent revenue growth, a 33 percent jump in profit and forecasts blue skies acutally makes the grade. (Reporting by Wojtek Dabrowski; editing by Peter Galloway)

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