The incoming data varied from across the globe today, where the start was with slight monetary easing measures from Japan taking us to upbeat confidence figures from Europe which ironically coupled with remaining jitters and mixed sentiment in the market!
Mainly, the sentiment is quite mixed today and the incoming data only supported the ease of woes rather than print pessimism amid an unchanged outlook for the economy, where investors still await the final revelation from the Feds.
The busy corporate earnings today from Europe added to this sentiment, where top names released earnings today that beat estimates supporting European equities upside bias.
The dollar traded lower today against its major rivals as investors again pondered upon the prospects for quantitative easing from the Feds and the amount to be administered, where too little can have slight to no effect, and too much can backfire and agitate markets and ignite inflation.
The dollar index retreated this morning to retest the 76.4% correction we discussed yesterday around 77.60 after successfully closing above this level. Greenback trended lower since morning after recording the high of 78.11 and so far recorded the low of 77.67.
This dollar weakness supported majors further, especially the euro. The 16-nation common currency continued the upside move today despite the prevailing jitters over indebted nations. Irish and Portuguese bonds slumped today as investors continued to doubt their fiscal positioning, where the jitters clearly are evident with the yield premiums for holding their debt over the German benchmark soared towards its earlier records.
Still, the euro benefited from the correction and the dollar weakness, and mainly was driven by the unexpected rise in confidence reported today. European confidence was generally upbeat and the outlook improved in October despite seen lingering downside pressures ahead, which further supported the expectations for stability in the euro area in the period to come.
The EURUSD pair traded with an upside bias so far, where the euro traded at its strongest of 1.3853 and currently hovering around its highs at 1.3843. The pair recorded the low earlier this morning of 1.3761. The sentiment is mixed and the pair might continue to fluctuate for the rest of the day, yet we see the bullishness to continue only if the pair stabilized above 1.3850 areas to support the continuation of the upside move.
Meanwhile, regarding the royal pound, sterling continues to be very sensitive and trading with high volatility as the market speculating for the APF expansion wanes following the good figures. Despite the lack of data from the kingdom today, we can see the pound rebound from the decline yesterday supported further by the dollar weakness to continue the upside move.
The pair advanced today supported by the positivity on Stochastic, where it recorded so far the high of 1.5879 versus the dollar and still trading close around 1.5870, leaving the early lows intact at 1.5760. We now see the ability for the bullishness to continue if the pair stabilized above 1.5880 targeting then a retest to the breached support for the ascending channel around 1.5980.
For the Japanese yen, the currency returned to its appreciation after the BoJ failed to meet markets expectations for heavy monetary loosening in an attempt to rein in the currency’s gains.
The BoJ preserved rates at the new “virtual zero” range and preserved its asset purchases and liquidity programs intact. The bank only expanded the range of accepted corporate debt and commercial paper rating allowing more to benefit from its facility in an attempt to expand the liquidity in the market to support the recovery, offset the yen’s gains, and help fight deflationary pressures.
This sentiment opposed the expected easing from the feds and of course returned the edge to the yen over the dollar. The USDJPY pair traded in a rather tight range but surely biased south since morning, so far recording the high of 81.77 and declining to the lowest at 81.20 and currently hovering around those areas.