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SOFTS-Cocoa climbs back from 2-1/2 month low

Published 03/30/2011, 07:52 AM
Updated 03/30/2011, 07:56 AM
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* Cocoa hits lowest level since mid-Jan, then finds support

* Coffee extends recent weakness on chart-driven selling

* Raw sugar edges up, Brazil harvest outlook eyed

(Adds quotes, byline, updates prices)

By Nigel Hunt

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Cocoa prices stabilised on Wednesday after sliding around 6 percent during the prior session as the market eyed prospects for a decisive resolution to the prolonged conflict in top grower Ivory Coast.

Coffee prices extended recent losses on selling driven by technical indicators while raw sugar edged slightly higher.

Forces loyal to Ivory Coast presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara advanced on Tuesday to within 200 km (120 miles) of the two main port cities in an intensifying offensive against incumbent Laurent Gbagbo.

If Ouattara's forces take control of the San Pedro port it could allow cocoa to once again flow out of the country after an export ban stalled supplies.

"There's definitely some pricing in of a quicker resolution. If a quick resolution does occur these sort of prices would draw cocoa out (of Ivory Coast) quite quickly," Keith Flury, a senior analyst at Rabobank said.

Ouattara's export ban, EU sanctions and the collapse of the local banking system have meant over 450,000 tonnes of stocks are languishing in storage, and concerns about a deterioration in quality are growing by the day.

"The sell off is speculator based, they were the ones that ran the prices up," Flury said.

May cocoa on ICE was up $3 at $3,060 a tonne at 1133 GMT after earlier hitting $2,993, its lowest level since mid-January.

"Whether there will be a rapid opening of the captured ports to cocoa exports is still being doubted but it certainly seems possible," one European physical cocoa trader said.

"Rapid exports would probably require a scaling-back of EU sanctions and the EU is not well known for making very quick decisions on matters like this."

July cocoa on Liffe stood 8 pounds higher at 2,002 pounds a tonne after earlier slipping to 1,968 pounds, also the lowest level for the contract since mid-January.

COFFEE FALLS

Arabica coffee futures on ICE eased on technically-driven sales as the market continued its recent downward slide despite supportive fundamentals.

May arabica coffee fell 0.90 cent or 0.3 percent to $2.6055 per lb. The contract has lost about 12 percent of its value since peaking at $2.9665 on March 9.

"When coffee passed $2.65 a lb on the way up it was speculator driven, roasters were taking a step back," Flury of Rabobank said, adding that once the sell-off occurred across commodities including coffee after Japan's earthquake, roasters secured supply before returning to the sidelines.

Arabica prices remain supported by a shortage of high quality beans.

"We have a bullish outlook looking to the next season with a deficit expected. Prices should stay supported from here on out," Flury said.

May robusta coffee on Liffe fell $26 or 1.0 percent to $2,484 a tonne.

Raw sugar futures were slightly higher as the market's focus remained on the harvest outlook for top producer Brazil.

Rains have hampered early harvesting and Telvent DTN said there were scattered light showers, locally heavier during the past 24 hours in Brazil.

May raw sugar rose 0.4 percent to 27.12 per lb while May whites in Liffe eased $2.50 to $700.00 per tonne. (Additional reporting by Sarah McFarlane and Michael Hogan; Editing by William Hardy)

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