* Polish September PMI rises to 46-month high of 54.7
* Czech PMI climbs to 58.0, Hungarian PMI slips close to 50
* Polish industrial output rises strongly
By Michael Winfrey
PRAGUE, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Czech and Polish manufacturing roared ahead in September to multi-year highs, data showed on Friday, but regional laggard Hungary edged towards stagnation and waning euro zone momentum indicated a slowing recovery.
An export boom in Germany and rising Polish and Czech domestic demand have helped propel production in the European Union's two biggest emerging economies for much of this year, leading policymakers to raise growth forecasts.
But parallel data showed a deceleration in German manufacturing, indicating the recovery was losing steam, especially for the export-heavy Czechs who lack Poland's large and growing domestic market.
Poland's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a 46-month high of 54.7 in September, Markit Economics said. The Czech PMI rose to 58.0 in September, its highest level since August 2007, from 57.3 in August.
A figure above 50 indicates expansion, while a number below 50 signals contraction.
"Industry is slowing across the region, with perhaps the exception of Poland, where the annual rate of growth in industry is going to pick up again in the third quarter," said Neil Shearing, from London-based Capital Economics.
"All of this means the National Bank of Poland will be the first to hike (interest rates), probably in the first quarter of next year, but there's an increasing risk that you could get a rate hike in the fourth quarter."
The Hungarian PMI, calculated under different methodology, dropped to 50.2 in September from 51.9 in August.
Hungary is suffering from weak domestic demand after a painful 6.3 percent contraction in 2009 and many years of government austerity measures aimed at reducing the budget deficit and large public debt load.
The Czech crown and Polish zloty rose around 0.8 percent against the euro in Friday morning trade, partly on rising expectations of higher interest rates. Hungary's forint was up 0.2 percent.
POLAND RISING
While the Czech central bank sees 2010 growth at around 1.6 percent, the Poles, largely unfettered by government austerity measures like those being pursued in its regional peers, see growth of 3-3.5 percent this year.
Both countries have benefited from a boom in German exports to Asia, as they play an important role in the German supply chain. But while about 70 percent of the Czech economy depends on exports, the figure is 30 percent for Poland.
Instead, Poland's 38-million-strong domestic market is the main economic engine, meaning it is suffering less from the winding down of euro zone stimulus programmes, such as the German car-scrapping scheme that propelled manufacturing in the EU's former communist eastern states until around mid-year.
German manufacturing slowed in September to its slowest pace since the start of the year, and this has begun to affect Czech output, whose growth slipped to 5.3 percent in July from 9 percent in June.
But Polish output is on the rise. Industrial output grew 13.5 percent in August, up from 10.3 percent in July, and analysts said they saw no sign of it slowing soon.
"This data suggests that the statistical effect will have a smaller negative effect on Polish industrial output in the second quarter of the year and that Poland will continue to be the champion of growth in Europe," said Rafal Benecki, senior economist at ING Bank Slaski. (Additional reporting by Jakub Jaworowski in Poland and Gergely Szakacs in Hungary, editing by Tim Pearce)