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UPDATE 2-Czech PM says 2008 budget provides crisis cushion

Published 01/01/2009, 10:49 AM
Updated 01/01/2009, 10:50 AM
TGT
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(Adds PM comments, detail on financial crisis, euro adoption)

By Jana Mlcochova

PRAGUE, Jan 1 (Reuters) - The Czech 2008 budget deficit will be much lower than planned, giving the government a fiscal cushion to offset the impact of the economic crisis, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said on Thursday.

Topolanek also said he would announce a previously planned cabinet reshuffle, with "significant" changes, on Jan. 5, and said his government would set a date for euro adoption on Nov. 1 -- ending years of Czech resistance to a specific target.

He said he would set up a council of economists, including opposition nominees, to come up with solutions for any impact of the economic crisis on the central European economy.

Unlike many of the Czech Republic's western European Union peers, who are trying to spur their economies out of recession and back to growth with publicly-funded stimulus packages, the Czechs have taken pains to keep state spending in check.

But Topolanek said the central state budget was likely to show a 20 billion crown ($1.05 billion) gap in 2008, versus a recent forecast of 60 billion crowns, and he indicated that prudence could be used for an emergency economic boost.

"We have created ... assets reserves (equal to) 1.5 to 2 percent of (GDP)," Topolanek said on Czech TV. "And we are able, in the case the economy drops below 2, or possibly 1 percent (growth), to use this money."

Since June, the approved deficit was planned at 71.3 billion, although a 2009 debt strategy released by the Finance Ministry last month saw a 2008 shortfall at 60 billion crowns.

The Finance Ministry expects growth to slow to 2-3 percent next year, from 5.7 percent in 2007, but the Czechs have avoided a more serious hit from the economic crisis and evaporating demand from the euro zone, the Czechs' main export market.

CABINET CHANGES

Topolanek's centre-right cabinet has struggled to push through reforms in tax, healthcare and other areas and suffered a crushing defeat in October regional and Senate elections.

In the reshuffle, first announced last month, Topolanek said he would switch ministers who had failed to sell reforms to an unwilling public.

"It think it will be significant. The people will not leave because they did not manage its tasks in the government, but rather that they did not manage the presentation," he said.

He did not comment on specifics. Analysts said healthcare and transport might be targeted, but finance and foreign affairs were likely to be untouched, particularly after the Czechs took over the European Union presidency on Jan. 1.

Topolanek named the day his government would set a date to adopt the euro as Slovakia became the euro zone's 16th member.

The Czechs have so far resisted setting a formal date to adopt the euro, saying the flexibility of the Czech crown and independent monetary policy are more advantageous in their path to catch up with the richer euro zone.

They can meet the compulsory Maastricht criteria -- apart from the required two-year stint in the ERM-2 exchange rate mechanism -- if inflation falls as expected this year.

"The fact that we will meet the Maastricht criteria is obvious," Topolanek said. "I declare here responsibly that on Nov. 1 this year the government will set a date for euro adoption." (Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Writing by Michael Winfrey, editing by Mike Peacock)

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