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WRAPUP 1-Russian jobless up, sales growth slows, worse to come

Published 11/21/2008, 09:15 AM
Updated 11/21/2008, 09:18 AM

* Number of unemployed highest since March

* Annual retail sales growth slowest in over 2 years

* Analysts say this "tip of the iceberg", worse to come

By Toni Vorobyova

MOSCOW, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Russia's unemployment count rose to a seven-month high and retail sales grew at their weakest annual pace in over two years in October, with analysts saying Friday's data was a harbinger of much worse to come.

Russian companies have started cutting production, jobs and salaries as the global slowdown crimps demand, falling energy and commodity prices eat into profits in the economy's dominant sectors and the credit crunch makes it virtually impossible to attract funding from abroad.

"October is the first month when we see the hit of the crisis ... It is the very tip of the iceberg," said Elina Ribakova, chief economist for Russia at Citibank.

"It will get much worse from here."

Companies reduced capital investment by 1.9 percent in October, the monthly report from the Federal Statistics Service showed.

The jobless rate rose to 6.1 percent with 4.6 million people unemployed -- the highest number since March.

Retail sales grew just 12.3 percent in October, their slowest annual pace since May 2006 and undershooting a consensus forecast of 13.8 percent, while housing completions slumped 19 percent during the month.

"It seems that the first reaction in September, when people -- faced with concerns about the global crisis and fears of a rouble devaluation -- rushed to buy goods, has passed. Now we are entering a period of slowing sales growth," said Alexander Morozov, chief economist Russia and CIS at HSBC.

JOBS CUTS, SALARIES DELAYED

During October, Russia's top food retailer X5 said it would lay off up to a third of its managerial workers and Renaissance Group, owner of one of Russia's largest and oldest investment banks, announced 100 job cuts.

Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works said it is considering shedding 3,000 jobs at Russia's largest steel plan, while truck maker Kamaz shortened its working week.

Job cut announcements have continued in November, with a survey from Levada centre this week showing that 21 percent of respondents or their families have already experienced delays in salary payments, and 17 percent reporting wage cuts.

Data earlier this week showed wage arrears rising to their highest level in a year in October, while annual industrial output growth was revised down to just 0.6 percent, the lowest since mid-2002.

Politicians are waking up to the fact that Russia's natural resource wealth and $450 billion reserves stockpile do not make it invincible in the face of world economic problems.

Analysts say that Russian growth prospects for next year hinge on the resilience of the domestic consumer sector, the speed of the global economic recovery and above all on the price of oil, which has already fallen to less than half the $95 a barrel factored into next year's budget.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Russian economy will grow 6.2 percent this year. Next year it sees growth of 4 percent as long as oil averages $85, and stagnation if it averages $50. (Reporting by Toni Vorobyova; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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