Forex - Weekly outlook: September 20-24

Published 09/19/2010, 05:39 AM
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Investing.com – Last week saw the dollar close higher against the euro and the yen after worse-than-expected data on U.S. consumer sentiment dampened risk appetite and after Japan reiterated a threat of possible currency market intervention.

The euro retreated from a 1-month high to close down against the dollar on Friday, amid fears over Ireland's banking sector, and after preliminary data showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in September, to hit its lowest level since August 2009.

Meanwhile, the pound trimmed gains against the dollar, retreating from a 5-week high amid decreased risk tolerance.

Also Friday, Japan's finance minister Yoshihiko Noda threatened to intervene in currency markets again if necessary to weaken the yen, indicating Japan's determination to defend its largely export driven economy.

On Wednesday, Japan intervened in currency markets for the first time in 6 years, selling approximately two trillion yen, attracting criticism from the U.S. and Europe.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The U.S. is also to release several reports on the housing sector as well as a weekly report on initial jobless claims. The country is also to release key data on manufacturing production while Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement.

Elsewhere in the world, the euro zone is to release key data on German business climate as aell as preliminary data on the manufacturing and service sectors.

Britain is to release data on the housing sector, while the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of the last meeting of the monetary policy committee. The bank is also to report on public sector borrowing.

Switzerland is to release data on its trade balance while in Japan markets will be closed on Monday for a bank holiday.

In Australia, the central bank is to publish the minutes of the last meeting of the monetary policy committee and the banks governor is to speak at a public engagement. New Zealand is to publish quarterly data on GDP and its current account. Finally Canada is to publish key reports on consumer prices and retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 20

The U.S. is to begin the week by publishing industry data on home sales, a leading indicator of economic health. Meanwhile, Britain is to publish preliminary data on mortgage approvals.

In Australia, the central bank governor Glenn Stevens is to speak, his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy. Canada is to publish data on foreign investment and wholesale sales, both important indicators of economic health.

Also Monday, New Zealand is to publish data on visitor arrivals, as tourism accounts for approximately 10% of the country's economy. Markets in Japan will be closed for a bank holiday.

Tuesday, September 21

On Tuesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate, followed by the closely watched rate statement. The U.S. is also to release key data on building permits and housing starts, leading indicators of growth in the construction sector.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of the monetary policy committee. The data provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the committee's decision on where to set interest rates.

The U.K. is to release a report on public sector borrowing, while Switzerland is to release data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services in the reported month.

Also Tuesday, Canada is to release data on consumer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth while New Zealand is to publish data on its current account.

Wednesday, September 22

On Wednesday, the euro zone is to release data on industrial new orders, a leading indicator of manufacturing production, while the U.S. is to publish data on crude oil inventories.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of the monetary policy committee. The data provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the committee's decision on where to set interest rates.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish key data on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending, while New Zealand is to publish a quarterly report on GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth.

Thursday, September 23

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on existing home sales. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Meanwhile, Germany and France and the wider euro zone are all to produce preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector growth.

Meanwhile, Britain is to release key data on mortgage approvals, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Friday, September 24

The U.S. is to end the week by producing key data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of manufacturing production. The country is also to produce data on new home sales, a leading indicator of growth in the housing sector.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to deliver a speech on the U.S. economy. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research is to release data on German business climate.



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