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Forex - Weekly outlook: September 16 - 20

Published 09/15/2013, 05:10 AM
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Investing.com - The dollar ended the week lower against the other major currencies on Friday after lukewarm data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment raised further doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will start to taper stimulus this month.

The Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in in August, undershooting expectations for a 0.4% increase. The data added to concerns over the outlook for third quarter growth.

A separate report showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a five month low of 76.8, from a final reading of 82.1 in August.

The reports came a week after the latest U.S. employment report showed that the economy added slightly fewer jobs than expected in August.

The dollar weakened amid renewed uncertainty over whether the Fed will start to unwind its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that the decision to begin tapering will depend on whether economic data is strong enough.

The dollar slid against the yen, with USD/JPY falling to session lows of 99.20, before settling at 99.36, 0.21% lower for the day and ending the week down 0.37%.

The dollar ended the day little changed against the euro, with EUR/USD rising as high as 1.3321, before trimming gains to settle at 1.3296, 0.01% lower for the day and 0.31% higher for the week.

Sterling rallied to eight month highs against the dollar on Friday. GBP/USD rose as high as 1.5885, the highest since January 23, before settling at 1.5878, 0.46% higher for the day and extending the week’s gains to 1.15%.

In the week ahead, investors will be keenly anticipating the outcome of the Fed’s policy-setting meeting on Wednesday, and a press conference with Fed chief Ben Bernanke will be closely watched.

The U.K. is to publish data on retail sales and the Bank of England is to release the minutes of its latest meeting. The ZEW index of German economic sentiment and a rate announcement by the Swiss National Bank will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 16

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The euro zone is to release data on consumer inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

Canada is to release data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to publish the Empire state manufacturing index, in addition to data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Tuesday, September 17

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Australia is to publish data on new vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, as well as reports on producer price inflation and retail price inflation.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on economic sentiment in the wider euro zone.

Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Wednesday, September 18

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.

The BoE is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts.

The Fed is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. Chairman Ben Bernanke is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement.

Thursday, September 19

New Zealand is to publish data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic health.

Japan is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The SNB is to announce its Libor rate and publish its quarterly monetary policy assessment.

The U.K. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as private sector data on industrial order expectations.

Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed manufacturing index and data on existing home sales.

Friday, September 20

Markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.K. is to release government data on public sector net borrowing.
Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation.



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