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Forex - Weekly outlook: September 12 - 16

Published 09/11/2016, 07:47 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar recovers from lows as Fed rate hike bets increase
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Investing.com - The dollar rebounded from almost two-week lows on Friday as comments by a Federal Reserve official boosted the chances for an interest rate increase in the near term.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.31% to 95.33 late Friday, off the lows of 94.44 set on Thursday. The index still ended the week down 0.53%.

The dollar recovered after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that a reasonable case can be made” for hiking rates in order to avoid overheating the economy.

The dollar had weakened earlier in the week after a report on Tuesday showing that U.S. service sector activity slowed in August to its lowest level since early 2010.

The weak data, coming after last week’s lackluster U.S. jobs report dampened expectations for a rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting, which is scheduled for September 20-21.

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in December.

Expectations of higher interest rates typically boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors.

Investors currently price a 24% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

The euro was lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.21% to 1.1235 late Friday.

The single currency was pressured lower after data showing that German exports unexpectedly posted the largest drop in a year in July, raising concerns over the outlook for the euro zone’s largest economy.

The dollar moved higher against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.23% to 102.71.

Sterling was also weaker, with GBP/USD down 0.21% to 1.3267.

In the U.K., data on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed in July as exports rose.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to U.S. economic reports on retail sales and inflation for possible indications on the future direction of monetary policy.

A monetary policy decision by the Bank of England and data on German economic sentiment will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 12

Japan is to release data on core machinery orders and producer prices.

Tuesday, September 13

Japan is to release data on manufacturing activity.

China is to produce a report on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Australia is to report on business confidence.

Switzerland is to release data on producer prices.

The U.K. is to report on consumer prices.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report German economic sentiment.

Wednesday, September 14

New Zealand is to release data on the current account.

The U.K. is to publish the monthly jobs report.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and several other officials are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.

Thursday, September 15

New Zealand is to publish data on second quarter growth.

Financial markets in Shanghai are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Australia is to publish the monthly jobs report.

The Swiss National Bank is to announce its interest rate decision.

The Bank of England is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish its meeting minutes.

The U.S. is to publish a string of economic reports, including data on retail sales, producer prices, jobless claims, industrial production and manufacturing activity.

Friday, September 16

Financial markets in Shanghai are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Canada is to report on manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on consumer price inflation and preliminary data on consumer sentiment.

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