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Forex - Weekly outlook: October 3 - 7

Published 10/02/2016, 04:38 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar erases gains against euro as Deutsche Bank shares rebound
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Investing.com - The dollar retreated from one-and-a-half week highs against the euro on Friday and gained ground against the safe haven yen and the Swiss franc as concerns over the health of Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) eased.

EUR/USD was up 0.19% at 1.1240 in late trade, after falling as low as 1.1153 earlier, the weakest level since September 21.

The single currency was boosted as Deutsche Bank shares rebounded following reports that it is nearing a deal to settle a mortgage-securities investigation by paying a $5.4 billion fine, well below the Justice Department’s original proposal of $14 billion.

Reduced concerns over the health of the German banking giant helped push the dollar to one-and-a-half week highs against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF hitting session highs of 0.9752.

The dollar also gained ground against the yen with USD/JPY last up 0.31% at 101.33, after hitting a session high of 101.78.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last little changed at 95.38.

In the week ahead, traders will be focusing their attention on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, seen by many as the clearest sign on the health of the labor market, amid ongoing speculation over whether U.S. interest rates will rise this year.

The Fed raised rates for the first time in almost a decade in December and forecast rates would rise four times this year, but officials have recently acknowledged that the mixed economic recovery means rates are likely to remain lower for longer.

The Fed’s next meeting is in November, but a rate hike ahead of the presidential election is seen as unlikely.

Expectations for lower rates typically weigh on the dollar by making it less attractive to yield seeking investors.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 3

Japan is to publish the Tankan surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity.

Financial markets in Shanghai will be closed for a national holiday.

German financial markets will also remain closed for a holiday.

The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to report on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, October 4

Financial markets in Shanghai are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Australia is also to publish data on building permits.

The U.K. is to release data on construction activity.

Wednesday, October 5

Financial markets in Shanghai will be closed for a national holiday.

Australia is to release figures on retail sales.

The U.K. is to produce data on service sector activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, the ISM report on service sector activity and data on factory orders.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release trade data.

Thursday, October 6

Shanghai’s financial market will remain closed for a holiday.

Australia is to release trade data.

The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting and German is to report on factory orders.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, October 7

Financial markets in Shanghai will be closed for a national holiday.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves.

The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation and official figures on industrial production.

Canada is to produce its monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched report on nonfarm payrolls.

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