Forex - Weekly outlook: October 29 - November 2

Published 10/28/2012, 05:42 AM
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Investing.com - The dollar came off a four-month high against the yen on Friday and ended the day little changed against the euro, as stronger-than-forecast U.S. third quarter growth was offset by ongoing concerns over Spain and Greece and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential elections.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew by a better-than-forecast 2% in the three months to September, on the back of stronger consumer spending, after expanding by 1.3% in the preceding quarter. Economists had predicted growth of 1.9%.

Separately, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index ticked down to 82.6 for October, from the initial reading of 83.1, which was the highest since September 2007.

But market sentiment remained on the back foot amid ongoing worries over the fiscal and economic outlook for Spain after official data showed that the country’s unemployment rate jumped to a record 25.02% in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, concerns over political uncertainty in Greece and doubts over whether the country will meet austerity targets also weighed.

The euro remained supported after European Union Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said the first round of disbursements to troubled Spanish banks will occur on schedule in November.

The dollar pulled back from a four month high against the traditional safe haven yen, after rallying earlier in the week amid mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy further at its upcoming policy meeting on October 30.

Elsewhere, the pound edged back from a one-week high hit against the dollar on Thursday after better-than-expected U.K. third quarter economic growth dampened expectations for more easing by the Bank of England.

The Office of National Statistics said U.K. gross domestic product expanded by 1.0% in the third quarter, pulling the economy out of the longest double dip recession since 1955 and outstripping expectations for a 0.6% gain.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Tuesday’s BoJ policy meeting amid ongoing speculation over the possibility of more easing from the central bank.

Market participants will also be awaiting Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data after the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September from 8.1% the previous month.

In addition, investors will be awaiting any indication that Spain is growing closer to requesting a bailout from its euro zone partners.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 29

Japan is to publish official data on retail sales, the leading measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Elsewhere, Italy is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.

The U.K. is to publish official data on net lending, which is closely linked to consumer spending, as well as data on M4 money supply and mortgage approvals.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to release government data on personal income, personal spending and core consumer inflation.

Tuesday, October 30

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. The central bank is to hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision after the rate announcement.

Japan is also to publish official data on household spending, as well as a preliminary report on industrial production.

In the euro zone, Spain is to release preliminary data on third quarter gross domestic product; the foremost indicator of economic activity and the leading gauge of the economy's health.

Canada is to produce government data on raw material price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

Wednesday, October 31

New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as official data on labor costs, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Australia is to produce official data on building approvals, an excellent gauge of future construction activity and a separate report on private sector credit. Elsewhere, Japan is to publish official data on average cash earnings.

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, as well as data on the unemployment rate in the bloc. In addition, Germany is to produce government data on employment change, a leading indicator of economic health.

Canada is to publish official data on monthly GDP growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.S., payroll processing firm ADP is to release a report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to publish official data on manufacturing activity in Chicago, as well as data on employment costs and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 1

Australia is to publish official data on import prices, which contribute to inflation. Elsewhere, China is to publish official data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Switzerland is to release official data on retail sales as well as a report on manufacturing activity. In the euro zone, markets in France and Italy are to remain closed for national holidays. Elsewhere in Europe, the U.K. is to produce data on manufacturing sector activity.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on nonfarm payrolls, an important indicator of job creation. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as official data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators.

In addition, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Friday, November 2

Japan is to publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, which contain important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Australia is to produce official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

In the euro zone, Spain and Italy are to release data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health. In addition, France is to hold and auction of 10-year government bonds.

The U.K. is to produce data on construction sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later Friday, Canada is to release government data on employment change and the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of job creation in the economy, as well as data on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is also to publish official data on average earnings and factory orders.



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