Forex - Weekly outlook: October 18-22

Published 10/17/2010, 05:53 AM
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar mover higher against the euro and the other major currencies on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke remained circumspect about the outlook for further monetary easing.

The dollar has come under broad selling pressure in recent weeks amid expectations that Federal Reserve policy makers will unveil fresh monetary easing measures after their next meeting in November.

In a speech on Friday, Bernanke said there was a case for further monetary easing, given high unemployment and low inflation. But he said officials "will take account of the potential costs and risks" of pursuing unconventional policies, and anything that is done will be "contingent on incoming information about the economic outlook and financial conditions."

The euro and the pound both retreated from 10-month highs against the U.S. dollar following the remarks, while the yen retreated from a 15-year high. The Australian dollar, which reached parity for the first time since 1983, also eased.

Next week, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, as well as key data on building permits, housing starts, manufacturing activity and foreign investment. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book.

Elsewhere, the euro zone is to produce key data on German economic sentiment and business climate. In the U.K., the Bank of England is to publish minutes of the most recent monetary policy committee meeting as well as data on public sector borrowing, while the bank’s governor is to give a speech. The country is also to produce official data on retail sales.

Also next week, the Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy report, which will be followed by a closely watched press conference. Later in the week, Canada will publish official data on retail sales and inflation. Australia’s central bank is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of its monetary policy committee while the governor of New Zealand’s central bank is to speak at a public engagement.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 18

Australia is to open the week with official data on new motor vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence. Later in the day, Canada is to publish data on foreign securities purchases, a strong driver of currency demand.

Also Monday, the U.S. is to publish government data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release official data on the capacity utilization rate as well as data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, October 19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of its monetary policy committee. The minutes provide in-depth insight into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. Later in the day, the country is to publish an index of leading economic indicators designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

The euro zone is to publish data on the regions current account while the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish key data on German economic sentiment as well as data on economic sentiment in the wider euro zone.

The U.K. is to produce industry data on industrial order expectations, an important indicator of economic health. The governor of the Bank of England, Melvyn King is to speak at a public engagement; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to publish government data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate, which will be followed with a closely watched rate statement.

Later in the day, the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Alan Bollard is to speak at a public engagement.

Wednesday, October 20

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to release its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate. The U.S. is also set to produce data on crude oil inventories.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish data on its producer price index, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

In the U.K., the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of the monetary policy committee. The data provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the committee's decision on where to set interest rates. The bank is also to publish data on public sector borrowing.

Elsewhere, Canada is to produce key data on wholesale sales. Later in the day, the Bank of Canada will publish its closely watched monetary policy report at a press conference. The report provides a valuable insight for traders into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation.

Also Wednesday, New Zealand is to publish data on visitor arrivals, as tourism accounts for approximately 10% of the country's economy.

Thursday, October 21

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Also Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, James Bullard is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Germany, France and the wider euro zone are all to produce preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector growth. The euro zone is also to release official data on consumer confidence.

The U.K. is to release preliminary data on mortgage approvals, as well as official data on retail sales, a primary gauge of consumer spending. Later in the day, the Governor of the Bank of England and several Monetary Policy Committee members are to testify on inflation and the nation’s economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.

In Switzerland, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research will publish data on Swiss economic expectations, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to release official data on its trade balance.

Also Thursday, New Zealand is to produce data on credit card spending, Japan is to release a report on industry-wide activity and Canada is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Friday, October 22


In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research is to release data on German business climate, while Italy is to produce official data on retail sales.

In the U.S. the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Thomas Hoenig is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Canada is to end the week by releasing key data on consumer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth, as well data on retail sales, a leading indicator of overall consumer spending.

Finally Friday, Australia is to publish a report on import prices, an important indicator of consumer inflation.


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