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Forex - Weekly outlook: October 13 - 17

Published 10/12/2014, 04:43 AM
Dollar index snaps 12-week rally to end week lower
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Investing.com - The dollar gained ground against most of the other major currencies on Friday amid fears over global growth, but the dollar index snapped a 12-week winning streak as the traditional safe haven yen ended the week higher.

EUR/USD was down 0.48% to 1.2628 late Friday, while GBP/USD slid 0.26% to 1.6074.

Market sentiment was hit by fears that Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy is being dragged into a recession after recent data indicated unexpected weakness in manufacturing and exports.

Data released on Thursday showed that German exports fell 5.8% in August, and this followed weak industrial output figures on Tuesday.

Earlier in the week, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecasts for global growth in 2014 and 2015 and warned that global growth may never reach its pre-crisis levels ever again.

The fund revised down its growth forecasts for the euro area’s three largest economies Germany, France and Italy.

Steep declines in commodity-price declines also fuelled fears that the global economy is slowing. Brent crude oil prices ell to their lowest level for nearly four years on Friday.

USD/JPY was down 0.17% to 107.64 late Friday, and ended the week with losses of 1.97%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 1% at 85.92. The move ended a 12-week rally that saw the index gain more than 8% since early July.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed that some officials were concerned over the impact of the stronger dollar on global growth and the outlook for U.S. inflation.

"Some participants expressed concern that the persistent shortfall of economic growth and inflation in the euro area could lead to a further appreciation of the dollar and have adverse effects on the U.S. external sector," the minutes said.

The commodity linked dollars ended Friday broadly lower, with AUD/USD tumbling 1.10% to 0.8684 in late trade, off the two week highs of 0.8897 struck in the previous session.

NZD/USD lost 0.64% to trade at 0.7812, while USD/CAD eased up 0.14% to 1.1198.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting U.S. data on retail sales and industrial production for fresh indications on the strength of the economic recovery. Tuesday’s ZEW report on German economic sentiment will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 13

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

China is to release data on the trade balance.

Markets in Canada are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, while U.S. markets will be closed for Columbus Day.

Tuesday, October 14

Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence.

Switzerland is to report on producer price inflation.

The U.K. is to produce data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The euro zone is to publish data on industrial production.

Wednesday, October 15

Australia is to release a private sector report on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on new vehicle sales.

China is to release data on producer and consumer prices.

The U.K. is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

The U.S. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to report on producer prices and manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Thursday, October 16

New Zealand is to publish private sector data on manufacturing activity, while Australia is to release a report on inflation expectations.

The euro zone is to publish revised data on consumer prices for September.

Canada is to release data on manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, October 17

Canada is to release data on consumer prices.

The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, as well as a preliminary report on consumer sentiment.

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