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Forex - Weekly outlook: November 29-December 3

Published 11/28/2010, 04:42 AM
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar reach 2-month highs against most of its major rivals as concerns over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone and escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula boosted demand for the currency as a safe haven.

The dollar advanced against the euro for the third straight week amid speculation that Portugal and Spain will be the next euro zone members to need fiscal aid. On Friday, European officials denied as "absolutely false" reports that Portugal was under pressure to seek a bailout while Spain also ruled out needing help to manage its finances.

Marking a significant reversal of recent trends, the dollar rose against the yen for the fourth successive week, due in large part to Japan's proximity to the unfolding conflict on the Korean peninsula. On Tuesday, North Korea shelled a South Korean island killing four people and on Friday warned the U.S. that its plans for naval exercises with the South will drive the peninsula "closer to the brink of war."

Sterling also fell to a fresh 2-month low against the dollar amid fears over the exposure of U.K. banks to Irish government debt while dollar traded close to 2-month highs against the Swiss franc.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell sharply against its U.S. counterpart on Friday after Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said the nation’s interest rate was appropriate for the “period ahead.”

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release data on ADP non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, ahead of the closely watched government data on non-farm employment on Friday. The government is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

In addition, the U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, pending home sales, manufacturing and service sector growth while the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

In the euro zone, the European Central Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate while the U.K. is to release official data on growth in the services and manufacturing sectors as well as industry data on house prices.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 29

New Zealand is to begin the week with official data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods over the month. The country is also to release data on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health as well as a report on building consents.

Japan is to release a slew of data, including a report on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to release data on manufacturing, industrial production, unemployment and household spending. Meanwhile, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaaki Shirakawa, is to speak at a public event; his comments will be closely watched for possible clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Also Monday, Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is to deliver a speech in Melbourne.

Later in the day, the Bank of England is to publish data on public lending, an important indicator of consumer confidence as well as data on mortgage approvals. Elsewhere, Canada is to publish a report on its current account and inflation.

Tuesday, November 30


In the U.K., research group Gfk is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Elsewhere, Australia is to publish official data on building approvals, an important gauge of future construction activity. Later in the day, the country is to produce reports on its current account, private sector credit and manufacturing growth while Japan is to publish official data on average cash earnings and housing starts.

Switzerland is to publish its UBS consumption indicator while the euro zone is to publish data on German unemployment change as well as preliminary data on consumer price inflation and the unemployment rate in the region. Also Tuesday, ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet is to address the European Parliament; his comments will be closely scrutinized for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, an important indicator of economic health as well as data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to release an index of manufacturing growth in the Chicago area, while Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish official data on its gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Wednesday, December 1

Australia is to publish third quarter GDP data, the leading indicator of economic growth. Later in the day, both Australia and New Zealand are to release data on commodity prices.

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce official data on retail sales, while the euro zone is to release final data on manufacturing activity.

Meanwhile, the U.K. is to produce official data on manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator of manufacturing production, as well as industry data on house prices.

Elsewhere, Switzerland is to produce data on manufacturing activity, a key indicator of economic health. Later in the day, Japan is to publish a report on capital spending and on its monetary base.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish a key monthly report on ADP non-farm employment change, which leads government data by two days. The country is also to publish revised data on nonfarm productivity, as well as official data on manufacturing activity, construction spending, total vehicle sales and crude oil inventories.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate.


Thursday, December 2

Australia is to publish official data on retail sales and the country’s trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the month. Later in the day, the country is to publish industry data on service sector growth.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to publish third quarter GDP data, the leading indicator of economic growth, as well as a report on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

In the euro zone, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement will be followed by a closely watched press conference. The euro zone is also to release revised third quarter GDP data as well as a report on producer price inflation.

Elsewhere, the U.K. is to publish data on construction activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to publish key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country will also release official data on pending home sales and natural gas storage.

Friday, December 3

In the euro zone, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy. Later in the day, the euro zone is to release data on retail sales and final data on service sector growth.

Switzerland is to publish data on consumer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth, while the U.K. is to produce official data on activity in the services sector.

Elsewhere, Canada is to release key data on employment change and the country's unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with key data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate, both leading indicators of economic health. The country is also to publish industry data on service sector growth as well as official data on factory orders.

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